- The Census Bureau recently published 2020 population estimates for US counties.
- We looked at natural population changes within the US, or the difference between births and deaths.
- The above map shows which counties saw more births than deaths and vice versa from 2019 to 2020.
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Recently released data from the Census Bureau shows which places in the United States had more births or more deaths between 2019 and 2020.
Last week’s release of county-level data included 2020 population estimates, net domestic migration estimates, and net international migration estimates. This new dataset also included the natural population change from July 1, 2019 to June 30, 2020, or the difference between births and deaths in a county during that time. This means the data covers part of last year when COVID-19 started to spread throughout the US.
Provisional National Vital Statistics System data reported by the Centers for Disease Control showed COVID-19 was the third leading cause of death in the US last year. Heart disease was the leading cause, followed by cancer.
Using the new Census data that shows births, deaths, and natural increase data for 3,143 county and county-equivalents, Insider looked at what natural population changes looked like across the nation from 2019 to 2020.
The places in red in the above map are where there were more deaths than births per 1,000 residents from July 1, 2019 to June 30, 2020, while blue counties indicate that there were more births than deaths per 1,000 residents in those places. Insider adjusted the natural increases and decreases by each county’s 2019 population.
Based on the map, more counties in the Northeast experienced natural decreases in a year, or more deaths than births, than counties that saw natural increases in this region of the US. This was also the case in the South. For instance, every county in West Virginia, with the exception of two counties, saw more deaths than births.
There were more births than deaths in many counties that make up the Western region of the US. For instance, every county in Utah, except Daggett County, saw a natural increase from 2019 to 2020.
The following table shows the 10 counties that saw the largest natural increases per 1,000 residents among counties with at least 10,000 residents in 2019:
Although Harris County, Texas, had the largest natural increase at 35,172, Madison County in Idaho had the largest natural increase when adjusting by 2019 population estimates. This county had a natural increase of 981 people, or an increase of 24.40 per 1,000 residents.
We can also look at the places that saw more deaths than births in just a year among counties with large populations. The following table shows the 10 counties that saw the largest natural decreases per 1,000 residents among counties with at least 10,000 residents in 2019:
Although Pinellas County, Florida, had the largest natural decrease at -5,893, Sumter County in Florida, had the largest natural decrease when adjusting by 2019 population estimates. This county had a natural decrease of 1,800 people, or a decrease of 13.46 per 1,000 residents.
It is important to note that the estimates released on May 4 are not the 2020 decennial census results.
“These estimates are based on the 2010 Census and were created without incorporation or consideration of the 2020 Census results,” the Census Bureau wrote about the population estimates. “They are typically used in comparisons with the 2020 Census to make determinations about the accuracy of the estimates.”