Not owning Tesla stock is the greater risk ahead of massive infrastructure package, Morgan Stanley says

Tesla Shanghai China Factory
Tesla TKed Wall Street’s expectations.

  • Morgan Stanley said Tesla will have a huge advantage ahead of President Biden’s infrastructure bill.

  • Biden’s $2 trillion proposal carved out $174 billion for the electric vehicle sector alone.
  • If this passes, the bank said this would exacerbate Tesla’s advantage over other players.

  • See more stories on Insider’s business page.

Among the companies that stand at an advantage ahead of President Joe Biden’s massive infrastructure bill is Tesla, according to Morgan Stanley analysts, and owning the stock they say may be a bigger risk than not.

Biden’s $2 trillion infrastructure proposal carved out $174 billion for the electric vehicle sector alone, as the president aims to better equip American companies to compete with China, which is currently the market leader in the electric vehicle space.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley led by Adam Jones said in a note published Wednesday that Biden’s bill will increase Tesla’s advantage over legacy players and new entrants altogether.

The policy used to accelerate sales of electric vehicles will slow sales of internal combustion engine cars, the analysts said.

The analysts did warn that the build-out may follow a volatile and non-linear path.

“It will likely be complicated by a labyrinth of national and local laws that will present advantages and disadvantages to various automakers, depending on the year that you choose to analyze,” they said. “Put it all together and we believe auto investors face greater risk not owning Tesla shares in their portfolio than owning Tesla shares.”

The electric carmaker last week revealed that 184,800 vehicles were delivered and 180,338 cars were produced for the first three months of 2021, despite major production and supply-chain headwinds. Tesla in the final quarter of last year delivered 180,570 cars.

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said the first-quarter results were a “paradigm changer” and show that the global pent-up demand for Tesla’s Model 3 and Y is just about to hit its next stage of growth.

The strong start of the year for the company proved that founder Elon Musk’s efforts to shore up global operations in Europe and China are paying off.

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Tesla’s stock price surged 740% in 2020. Here’s where 5 analysts say the shares are headed next.

FILE PHOTO: The logo of Tesla is seen at a branch office in Bern, Switzerland March 25, 2020. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann
Logo of Tesla is seen at a branch office in Bern

  • Tesla’s stock price skyrocketed 740% in 2020, but Wall Street is split on where the shares will move next.
  • JPMorgan sees the electric vehicle company plummeting 87% to $90 a share in 2021. Meanwhile Goldman Sachs has a 12-month price target of $780 for Tesla. 
  •  Here are five Tesla price targets from Wall Street’s top strategists.
  • Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.

2020 was a wild ride Tesla’s stock. It opened on January 2 2020 at $84.90 (adjusted for the stock split) and will close 2020 above $700-that’s a gain of over 740%. Here’s where five analysts say Tesla shares are headed in 2021. 

JPMorgan

JPMorgan analysts rate the stock “underweight,” with a price target of $90, an 87% drop from current levels. 

Tesla stock is “in our view and by virtually every conventional metric not only overvalued, but dramatically so,” a team of JPMorgan analysts led by Ryan Brinkman said earlier in December.

Goldman Sachs 

Goldman Sachs has a “neutral” rating for Tesla and 12-month price target of $780. On December 2, analysts led by Mark Delaney raised the price target to $780 from $455, telling clients: “We believe that the shift toward battery electric vehicle (EV) adoption is accelerating and will occur faster than our prior view.” 

Read more: Jeremy Grantham’s GMO called the dot-com bubble. His firm now sees ‘very odd and speculative things’ going on again – and warns large US stocks could see negative returns over the next 7 years.

Wedbush Securities

Wedbush’s Dan Ives rates the stock “neutral,” with a 12-month price target of $715, and a bull case price of $1000.

“Heading into year-end and 2021, we are seeing a major inflection of EV demand globally with our expectations that EV vehicles ramp from ~3% of total auto sales today to 10% by 2025,” Ives said on Dec 29 in a note to clients. “We believe this demand dynamic will disproportionately benefit the clear EV category leader Tesla over the next few years especially in the key China region which we believe could represent ~40% of its EV deliveries by 2022 given the current brisk pace of sales.” 

CFRA Research

Garrett Nelson, senior equity analyst at CFRA Research senior equity strategist has a “hold” rating on Tesla and a 12-month price target of $750.

“After a YTD run-up of over 700%, we think future growth expectations are now appropriately bullish and after a multi-quarter run of positive news, we struggle to identify the next catalyst in the story. In early January, TSLA will report Q4 vehicle production/sales, and we continue to forecast it will fall just shy of TSLA’s full year sales goal of 500K units,” Nelson said. ” While TSLA has materially strengthened its balance sheet through recent equity offerings, the company’s longer-term growth plans will require significant capital and we anticipate TSLA will face some bona fide competition in the EV space from Lucid, Rivian, and others in 2021.” 

RBC Capital Markets 

RBC Capital Markets has a $339 price target for Tesla, more than a 50% drop from current levels.

“Our $339 price target takes a look at EV/sales- and EV/EBITDA-based multiple approaches and probability weights them (65% base, 17.5% each for upside/downside),” analysts led by Joseph Spak said on Dec 22. 

Read more: JPMorgan unveils its 50 ‘most compelling’ stock picks to buy for 2021 – and details why each one will be a top performer

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