The GameStop saga didn’t revolutionize the stock market – it just proved how out of touch Wall Street has become for the average American

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GameStop’s stock prices have been erratic since the January squeeze.

  • Paul Constant is a writer at Civic Ventures and a frequent cohost of the “Pitchfork Economics” podcast with Nick Hanauer and David Goldstein.
  • In the latest episode, they spoke with California congressman Ro Khanna about Robinhood and the GameStop squeeze.
  • Khanna says the stock-buying craze should serve as a stark reminder of “the over-financialization of our economy.”
  • See more stories on Insider’s business page.

It feels like a fever dream now, but for one week in late January all anyone in the media could talk about was Gamestop’s skyrocketing stock prices.

In case you’ve already driven the episode out of your memory, here’s a brief recap: A Wall Street hedge fund had placed a big bet that America’s biggest chain video game retailer was on the verge of failure, and users from a subreddit called WallStreetBets rushed in to buy stock and force the hedge fund to cover their positions, thereby costing the fund billions of dollars in the process and driving the stock price up in what’s called a “squeeze.”

After GameStop share prices started climbing, stock trading apps that many Redditors used to buy stocks, including Robinhood, suddenly disabled the capacity of users to buy additional shares of GameStop and other so-called “meme stocks” for on-the-skids companies like AMC and BlackBerry that had gained new prestige thanks to WallStreetBets.

Before Robinhood throttled the stock-buying craze, the internet was full of pundits claiming that the little guy was finally striking back against Wall Street, that the age of hedge funds had come to an end, and that a new economic order was dawning. But now that GameStop’s share price has declined considerably (though it remains quite erratic,) those hot takes all seem like empty hyperbole. Hedge funds made fistfuls of money off the GameStop stock fad, and the stock-trading revolution didn’t materialize. The rich got richer – and everyone else, by and large, either lost money or coasted along.

In this week’s episode of “Pitchfork Economics,” Nick Hanauer and David Goldstein talk with Representative Ro Khanna, who represents California’s Silicon Valley, to discuss the true lessons of GameStop mania.

Robinhood’s motives

Khanna has some harsh words for Robinhood’s decision to disable its users capability to buy certain meme stocks without any explanation. “Even if you don’t think there’s any nefarious motive – my sense is it was a liquidity issue and they didn’t have the money required to meet the clearinghouse collateral requirements – you wonder why they didn’t have to have disclosure,” Khanna said.

“They had no disclosure to their investors. They took no provisions to have loans or other capital available if they ever ran into that situation,” Khanna continued, adding that Robinhood also was selling customer data to a hedge fund called Citadel Securities, which then likely profited from the use of that information.

“It does create questions about whether these conflicts of interest should really exist,” Khanna said, “and whether people should be allowed to trade on your data when you have a relationship with someone who has a different financial interest than the investors trading on the site.”

Robinhood, then, seems to be built on two separate models of exploitation. Not only does it serve as a low-friction entry point to the rigged casino of Wall Street, where the house always wins and the little day trader always loses, but it also apparently has the privacy issues of a Facebook or a Tiktok, in which users may not realize that their every move is being scrutinized, packaged, and sold to the highest bidder. Both types of exploitation have thrived under decades of deregulation, and they’re likely to only get worse without some form of government intervention.

On a broader scale, Khanna calls the GameStop craze a potent reminder “of the over-financialization of our economy.”

Some 55% of Americans aren’t invested in the stock market at all, “The fact that so much attention is being paid to this gambling as opposed to investing in building things – battery storage plants or electric vehicle plants – should make us pause about what’s going on in our economic system and why,” Khanna said.

Wall Street’s disconnect

The past year, in which the stock market climbed ever higher throughout the pandemic, even while more and more Americans lost their jobs and financial stability, offers even more proof that Wall Street has become unmoored from the average American’s experience.

Financial success has less and less to do with the creation of solutions to everyday problems and more and more to do with stripping value and leveraging profits away from existing assets. To flip Mitt Romney’s 2012 leaked fundraiser speech on its head, rather than making products and services with real-world value, finance has become about taking assets away from the average American.

Or, as Hanauer asked late in the episode, “Why in the world would you want to make it more lucrative for a highly talented person to rub money together to make more money, rather than go crack some medical problem, or invent some gizmo that could actually increase human welfare?”

It’s a fundamental economic question, and one that will only become more pressing as hedge funds and tech startups continue to run amok. Is the point of capitalism for a select few to make as much money as possible, no matter who gets hurt in the process? Or should the forces of capitalism be directed through regulation toward building concrete benefits for all society?

The next time these two dueling economic philosophies come into conflict, much more than a chain retailer’s flagging stock price might be at stake.

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GameStop’s stock price likely to see limited impact from $1,400 stimulus checks, says Bank of America

GameStop
  • The $1,400 stimulus checks being sent to Americans may have a limited impact on GameStop shares, says Bank of America.
  • BofA has been analyzing non-fundamental factors on the shares including trading volume and short interest
  • GameStop is set to release fourth-quarter earnings on March 23.
  • See more stories on Insider’s business page.

GameStop shares are likely to get just a limited bump up in volume activity and price from the $1,400 stimulus checks that most Americans are receiving to help them financially cope with the coronavirus crisis, according to Bank of America.

This year’s rush by retail investors into the videogame seller’s shares has resulted in the stock price climbing at high as $348 from nearly $19 at the end of 2020. Much of the fervor around the often-volatile stock has come from retail investors on the Reddit social-media platform, who ramped up a battle against institutional short-sellers in late January.

Over the past two months, Bank of America has analyzed the impact on GameStop shares from non-fundamental factors including the number of conversations on Reddit relating to the stock, trading volumes, and short interest. The factors “have shown a tight relationship and large increases have corresponded to several big surges in GME’s share price,” the firm said.

Then the bank began taking into consideration the $1,400 checks the government starting sending out this month. It analyzed the number of conservations mentioning stimulus, as well as “stimmies” and stimmy”, on online forums then plotted the data against GameStop’s share performance.

In late December and ahead of the round of $600 stimulus payments sent under the Trump administration, “there was indeed a spike in stimulus mentions and this was followed by an even larger increase over the past two weeks,” from March 2 through March 17.

“These spikes also coincided with significant increases in GME’s share price,” wrote the bank in a note led by Curtis Nagle, director of equity research at Bank of America.

But “the impact going forward may be limited given two factors,” the bank said. First, conservations involving stimulus “appear to have peaked” and GameStop shares have declined over the past few days. Secondly, the number of recent conversations including both GameStop and stimulus “is low. GME trading volumes are also steadily declining and short interest is down materially.”

The next event on the radar for GameStop investors is the release of the company’s fourth-quarter earnings after the bell on March 23. “We expect an underwhelming quarter given previously announced holiday sales results that were very disappointing,” said BofA.

It noted that GameStop shares over the past five months “have reacted very positively to a string of announcements” including a digital revenue-sharing arrangement with Microsoft and the appointment of Ryan Cohen to be in charge of a new committee aimed at driving a turnaround plan. Cohen is the cofounder of pet products retailer Chewy and GameStop’s largest individual shareholder.

Bank of America maintained its underperform rating on GameStop shares “on significant earnings risk ahead.”

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SenesTech soars 87% after concluding successful deployments of its ContraPest agricultural technology

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Shares of SenesTech soared as much as 87% on Friday after the company concluded that its pest control solution demonstrated success in two agricultural deployments.

ContraPest, which is a bait system designed to reduce rat populations in agricultural settings, saw positive results within six months of deployment, according to the company.

A west coast poultry farm saw a 90% reduction in rat populations within 12 months of utilizing ContraPest, while an east coast poultry farm saw an 88% improvement in pullet survival after reducing the population of rodents with ContraPest, the company said.

Rodent populations can be a costly nuisance for farmers, as they can spread disease to livestock and destroy costly grain feed.

“While these results were from deployments at poultry facilities, the results are immediately applicable to many other agricultural situations,” CEO Ken Siegel said.

ContraPest utilizes an approach that targets the reproductive capabilities of both sexes in rat populations, inducing egg loss in female rats and impairing sperm development in males.

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Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway scores $17 billion gain across 5 stocks as value stages a comeback

warren buffett
Warren Buffett.

  • Warren Buffett has racked up $17 billion in gains across just five stocks this year.
  • Berkshire Hathaway’s Bank of America stake has soared in value by $9 billion.
  • Buffett is up more than $1 billion on Kraft Heinz, GM, and US Bancorp in 2021.
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Warren Buffett is winning big from the flight to value stocks ahead of the global economy reopening this summer. The famed investor’s Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate has notched an astounding $17 billion in gains across only five stocks this year.

Buffett’s company is up $9 billion on Bank of America alone. The banking group’s stock price has surged 30% since the start of January, boosting the value of Berkshire’s enlarged stake from $30 billion to $39 billion.

Moreover, Berkshire has scored a $3.7 billion gain on American Express, as the financial-services group’s stock has jumped 30% this year. It has also made $1.5 billion on Kraft Heinz, $1.4 billion on General Motors, and $1.3 billion on US Bancorp in under three months.

Buffett’s bets on five Japanese trading houses last fall are delivering too. Itochu, Mitsui, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, and Sumitomo shares have gained an average of 26% this year, lifting the combined value of Berkshire’s holdings by $1.6 billion.

Other Berkshire investments are outperforming as well. Chevron, Suncor Energy, and Synchrony Financial have all climbed more than 20% this year, while Wells Fargo – previously one of Berkshire’s biggest holdings – has rallied 37%. Meanwhile, the benchmark S&P 500 index is up 5.8% this year.

However, Berkshire’s gains have been partly offset by the recent exodus from tech stocks. Apple – which makes up more than 40% of Buffett’s US stock portfolio – has slumped 7% this year. The decline has wiped close to $8 billion off the value of Berkshire’s stake.

Berkshire has also taken a hit from Coca-Cola, leaving its shares worth about $900 million less today than at the start of January. The company’s also down about $400 million on both Snowflake and Verizon.

Buffett’s signature approach of sniffing out high-quality, undervalued businesses and investing for the long term is finally paying off. Yet if growth stocks do take off again, his Apple wager will likely flourish. It appears Buffett’s found a way to have his cake and eat it too.

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Treasury yields spike to highest in 14 months, pulling tech stocks down while boosting banks

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Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

  • The 10-year Treasury yield pushed past 1.7% on Thursday, marking a fresh 14-month high for the benchmark note.
  • The 30-year yield also made a notable move by rising to 2.5% for the first time in more than a year.
  • Tech stocks were losing ground but bank shares advanced on the back of richer yields.
  • See more stories on Insider’s business page.

Borrowing costs quickly picked up pace Thursday as the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield surged to a fresh 14- month high, with the move pressuring tech stocks but bolstering bank shares.

The 10-year yield climbed to an intraday high of 1.754%, a leap of nine basis points since ending at 1.64% on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the 30-year yield on Thursday rose to 2.5% for the first time since August 2019. That yield on Wednesday settled at 2.437%.

Investors keep a close watch on long-dated yields as they are tied to a range of lending programs such as mortgages and auto loans. Yields have been rising, while bonds sell off, as investors continue to price in expectations of higher inflation as the US economy recovers from the COVID-19 crisis.

But the increase in borrowing costs has stoked selling in growth stocks, including large-cap tech stocks that have run up over the past year. Thursday’s moves included Apple falling by 2.3%, Google’s parent company Alphabet down by 1.1%, and Microsoft losing 1.7%. The Nasdaq Composite, home to numerous tech stocks, lost 1.4%, and the S&P 500‘s information technology sector slumped 1.5%.

The 10-year yield on Wednesday reached its highest since January 2020 as investors positioned themselves before the Federal Reserve released its policy decision and economic projections. The central bank’s upgraded economic outlook included its view that gross domestic product will expand by 6.5% this year, up from the prior estimate of 4.2%. The 10-year yield pulled back from the 1.6% area during Wednesday’s session before roaring higher again on Thursday.

“Right now the market is pricing in a rate hike in the latter half of 2022, which we think is very early and, in fact, it’s nearly mathematically impossible for the Fed to hike in 2022 if they truly intend to look past transitory inflation,” Calvin Norris, US rates strategist at Aegon Asset Management, told Insider on Thursday. “What the market is implying is the Fed is going to cave on this persistency-of-inflation idea.”

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday reiterated the central bank’s stance of allowing inflation to rise past 2% to support growth in the labor market and the economy before it starts raising interest rates.

While tech stocks sold off, bank stocks charged up, with Bank of America gaining 4.1%. Banks aim to lend money on long-term rates and the increase in long-dated yields improves their prospects for growth in interest income.
Wells Fargo climbed 3.8% and JPMorgan Chase popped up 3.5%.

Also, the Invesco KBW Bank ETF tacked on 3% and the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF gained 3.2%.

“While it’s difficult to say when this might occur but we’re kind of setting the stage for some type of counter-trend rally here in Treasuries,” said Norris. “Treasuries are oversold, sentiment is extremely bearish, Treasuries are very cheap to foreign buyers,” he said.

“I think the market is trying to challenge the Fed. But if you do believe the Fed and the projections for growth and inflation, valuations look very attractive at these levels. Not to say that they can’t get cheaper and be more attractive but we’re at those levels that I think it’s difficult to add to short positions in here,” Norris added.

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Dow, S&P 500 close at records after Fed upgrades its growth outlook and indicates no rates hikes until 2023

Barclays Traders NYSE
  • The Dow and the S&P 500 closed at new records after the Federal Reserve reiterated an accommodative policy stance as the economy recovers.
  • It’s “not yet” time for the Fed to start talking about reducing asset purchases, says Fed Chairman Powell.
  • The 10-year yield eased back from its highest level in 14 months.
  • See more stories on Insider’s business page.

US stocks turned higher Wednesday, with the Dow Jones industrial average and the S&P 500 closing at new record highs. Tech stocks recovered after the Federal Reserve reiterated its pledge to continue supporting the US economy as it continues to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Nasdaq Composite reversed course after losing more than 1% during the session and the S&P 500 clawed out of negative territory during afternoon trading. The run higher in stocks during the session came after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said it was “not yet” time to begin discussions about tapering its purchases of bonds and other securities.

“We want to see that labor market conditions have made substantial progress toward maximum employment and inflation has made substantial progress toward the 2% goal,” Powell said in an afternoon press conference. “When we see actual data coming in that suggests that we’re on track…then we’ll say so,” and “well in advance of any decision to actually taper.”

The Fed at its policy meeting ended Wednesday left its benchmark interest rate unchanged, as expected. The Fed currently buys $120 billion a month in assets in part to help keep the financial system running smoothly as the worldwide pandemic persists.

Here’s where US indexes stood at 4 p.m. ET at the close on Wednesday:

Investors had earlier shoved down high-performing tech stocks as borrowing costs increased as implied by the 10-year Treasury yield. The yield approached 1.7% and reached its highest level since January 2020, which was before the COVID-19 outbreak was declared a pandemic.

The Fed upgraded its economic projections including its view that gross domestic product will expand by 6.5% this year, up from the prior estimate of 4.2%. Economists have said the vaccinations of millions of Americans and the $1.9 billion fiscal stimulus package from Washington are key factors in driving economic recovery. The Fed also indicated that no rate hikes will take place before 2023.

In equities, Uber fell over 4% after the company said late Tuesday it will reclassify drivers in the United Kingdom as “workers,” guaranteeing them minimum wage, paid vacation and other benefits.

Plug Power shares tumbled as much as 23% after the hydrogen fuel-cell company said it will restate some of its financial reports because of accounting errors.

Legendary investor Bill Gross said he’s betting against GameStop stock again after walking away from January’s wild volatility with $10 million.

Meanwhile, short bets on the stock market may be bottoming out as indexes hit record highs, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Gold rose 1.09% to $1,751.05 per ounce. Long-dated US treasury yields rose.

Oil prices fell. West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 0.46% to $64.64 per barrel. Brent crude, oil’s international benchmark, dropped 0.55%, to $68.06 per barrel.

Bitcoin rose as much as 4.4% to $58,184.

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Billionaire investor Jeffrey Gundlach warns stocks are hugely overvalued – and amateur traders will worsen the coming crash

Jeffrey Gundlach
Jeffrey Gundlach.

  • Jeffrey Gundlach warned stocks are overvalued and face a brutal downturn.
  • The billionaire investor predicted the stock market will tumble by far more than 15%.
  • The DoubleLine Capital boss also slammed the latest round of US stimulus.
  • See more stories on Insider’s business page.

Billionaire investor Jeffrey Gundlach sounded the alarm on stocks and predicted a painful crash on DoubleLine’s Total Return Webcast last week.

Suggesting the stock market is “anything other than very overvalued versus history is just to be ignorant of all the metrics of valuation,” the DoubleLine Capital boss said.

Gundlach gave that reply when asked whether he agrees with Michael Burry of “The Big Short” fame that markets are in a “speculative bubble” and will suffer a “dramatic and painful” decline. He voiced a similar view, saying stocks would fall much more than 15% when the downturn comes.

The so-called “bond king” predicted that many retail investors will cash out when equities turn south, exacerbating the inevitable correction. “We’ll have a tremendous unwind of a lot of the money that thinks that the stock market is a one-way thing,” he said.

Gundlach also issued a stark warning about federal spending during the pandemic. “We’re pretty clearly in a speculative bubble regarding debt and government activity,” he said.

The DoubleLine boss deployed a wealth of economic data to make his arguments. For example, he pointed to rising trade and budget deficits, depressed consumer confidence, record readings on the “Buffett indicator” and other market gauges, heady price-earnings ratios, and the disconnect between growth, employment, and the stock market.

Gundlach made several calls during the webcast. He expects year-on-year inflation of over 3% in June or July, the dollar to weaken in the coming months, and gold prices to bounce back.

Moreover, the investor predicted the VIX – an index known as the market’s “fear gauge” because it measures investors’ volatility expectations – will surge past 100 for the first time when the crash comes. Lofty valuations and the “amateur aspect of the market with Robinhood” will fuel volatility, he said.

Gundlach also criticized President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus bill, which was signed into law last week. He called it “shocking” that couples with a household income of $150,000 and three children are set to receive $6,000 in federal support.

Stimulus initiatives are “cooking all of us frogs in a pot,” he said, comparing them to “monetization” programs where governments fund themselves by printing money instead of collecting taxes or borrowing.

“The biggest problem is that we’ve become totally addicted to these stimulus programs,” Gundlach said. He argued that the government is training people to rely on federal support, and could struggle to turn off the tap as a result.

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Volkswagen rallies as much as 8.8% as investors buy into its plans to rival Tesla for electric vehicle dominance

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A Volkswagen worker works on the ID 3, one of Volkswagen’s electric cars.

German car manufacturer Volkswagen rose by as much as 8.8% on Wednesday, extending the gains made the day before when it unveiled its plans for expansion in the electric vehicle market that could make it the world’s leading producer.

Shares were up as much as 8.8% at one point, at 291 euros ($346), their highest since November 2008 and set for a 25% gain so far this week. Volkswagen’s US-listed shares closed 10% higher on Tuesday.

At its “Power Day” on Monday, Volkswagen said it would build six electric vehicle battery factories across Europe and produce predominantly electric cars by 2030. This has triggered a surge in the value of its shares.

Volkswagen also stated it could significantly reduce battery production costs, which in turn would drive down electric vehicle retail prices, and invest into building an electric vehicle software infrastructure to be used across all of its brands.

Disruption in supply chains through factory closures, manufacturing interruptions and delivery delays have put pressure on the car manufacturing industry throughout the pandemic.

By shifting its focus towards electric vehicles over the past year and effectively emulating Tesla’s strategy, Europe’s largest carmaker has gained back a significant amount of ground. Volkswagen shares have risen by 180% since the market crash in March last year.

The company is aiming to dethrone Tesla as the global leading manufacturer of electric vehicles: “Our goal is to secure a pole position,” said Herbert Diess, CEO of Volkswagen, on “Power Day”.

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GameStop slump and weak February sales data are pressuring a major retail ETF

GameStop
At a GameStop store in North Las Vegas.

  • GameStop on Tuesday was on course for a second straight loss, down as much as 20% during the session.
  • The video game retailer is the largest holding in the SPDR S&P Retail ETF.
  • The ETF was down after February retail sales fell by more than expected, with poor weather a big factor.
  • See more stories on Insider’s business page.

GameStop shares fell by more than 20% during Tuesday’s session. The move lower came alongside a slump in monthly US retail sales and putting pressure on a widely watched retail exchange-traded fund.

GameStop shares were on track for a second straight loss, though shares staged a recovery in the afternoon following a steep decline in early trading. The stock fell by as much as 22% to an intraday low of $172.35.

The video game seller was down alongside other retail stocks after the Commerce Department said early Tuesday retail sales fell by 3% in February. That result was worse than the 0.5% decline expected in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

GameStop is the top holding in the SPDR S&P Retail ETF with a weighting of about 12.4% as of Monday. The ETF, which had about $855 million in assets under management, on Tuesday fell as much as 3.6% to 90.08 before trimming the loss of 2.3%. Among the ETF’s other holdings, Signet Jewelers fell 1.2%, Kohl’s sagged by 2.5% and Rent-A-Center fell 4.1%. Best Buy, meanwhile, edged up 0.2%.

Sales in the electronics and appliances category in February fell by 1.9% month-over-month and on a seasonally adjusted basis. But analysts largely pointed to poor weather as a key reason that February retail sales declined. The loss also came after an upwardly revised increase in January sales.

The US government last week starting sending stimulus checks of $1,400 to most Americans as part of its coronavirus-relief package. That money “will lift disposable income by roughly 25% month-over-month in March, creating a massive tailwind for consumer demand,” Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies, in a note Tuesday.

Other analysts have said GameStop should benefit from customers having extra funds for discretionary items.

GameStop, the darling of retail investors active on Reddit’s Wall Street Bets community, earlier this month said Ryan Cohen will be in charge of a new committee aimed at driving a turnaround plan.

Cohen is the cofounder of pet products retailer Chewy and GameStop’s largest individual shareholder.

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The stock market’s fear index just dropped below a key level that suggests further upside ahead

Stock trader
  • A decline in stock market volatility over the past few weeks suggests more upside ahead for stocks.
  • On Tuesday, the CBOE Volatility Index fell below the key 20 level and hit its lowest levels since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • According to Fairlead Strategies’ Katie Stockton, a consistent VIX reading below 20 would signal a bullish shift in sentiment.
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The stock market’s fear gauge fell below a key level on Tuesday that suggests further upside ahead for stocks.

The CBOE Volatility Index, also known as the VIX, fell below the 20 level and hit its lowest point since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. A VIX below 20 is seen as a signal that the stock market is transitioning from a high volatility regime to a low volatility regime, according to Fairlead Strategies’ Katie Stockton.

And according to Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, a fall below 20 in the VIX signals a risk-on environment that would spark fund flows into stocks from systematic and quantitative investment funds.

“A fall below 20 takes this volatility index to pre-2020 levels and a drop in the VIX would be a risk-on signal,” Lee said in a note last month.

But the VIX has staged multiple head fakes over the past few months, briefly falling below 20 before spiking higher in February, November and August.

That’s why Stockton recommends investors wait for confirmation of a breakdown in the VIX before making any portfolio changes, like removing market hedges. Confirmation of a VIX breakdown would require consecutive daily closes below the 20 level, according to a Tuesday note from Stockton.

“This would mark a potentially bullish shift in sentiment, and a move from a high-volatility regime to a low-volatility regime, last seen pre-Covid with a new floor for the VIX near 11,” Stockton said, adding that a VIX breakdown “would support near-term upside follow-through for the inversely correlated S&P 500.”

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