5 ways to hedge against an inflation spike, plus what it’s like to work for Cathie Wood

Hello and welcome to Insider Investing. I’m Joe Ciolli, and I’m here to guide you through what’s been happening in markets, as well as what to expect in the coming weeks. Here’s what’s on the docket:

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Your weekly recap/outlook

This past week was a total throwback. GameStop traders ran rampant. The US stimulus outlook caused significant market gyrations. It felt like the last week January all over again.

GameStop surged 104% in the final 30 minutes of trading on Wednesday and extended those gains to 311% at Thursday intraday highs. The spike was enough to cost short-sellers – apparently gluttons for punishment – another $1.9 billion in mark-to-market losses. The rally petered out on Friday, but it was refreshing for everyone’s favorite brick-and-mortar game retailer to get another couple days in the sun.

Strangely enough, the latest GameStop frenzy was largely overshadowed by a bond-market tantrum that saw 10-year Treasury yields climb to a more than one-year high. The culprit was renewed inflation fears stemming from President Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion stimulus bill.

The worry is that consumer prices will overheat as the US economy snaps back into shape, and the Fed’s assurance that it will keep a loose monetary policy for the foreseeable future did nothing to soothe nerves. The most overvalued segments of the stock market – most notably mega-cap tech – sold off swiftly as the skyrocketing yields suddenly made bonds an attractive alternative.

At the center of all this going forward, per usual, is the economic recovery. The degree of progress will inform ongoing stimulus negotiations, which will stoke further debate about inflation risk. The narrative that prevails will determine whether the bond-market outburst was a flash in the pan, or a longer-term development that could upend portfolios and send stocks into another tailspin. Stay tuned.


5 ways to guard against inflation

Traders in the S&P 500 stock index futures pit signal offers near the close of trading at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange May 23, 2007

John Normand of JPMorgan is keeping a close eye on rates, and says a small increase could make a huge difference because the economy is so leveraged. Normand says he’s still “comfortable” investing today, but that might change if real rates pick up. He laid out five asset classes that will protect investors if inflation ramps up.

Read the full story here:

JPMorgan says these 5 cross-asset hedges are the best ways to protect portfolios from stimulus-driven inflation


Working at Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest

cathie wood ceo ark invest profile 2x1

All eyes were on Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest this past week amid volatility in tech stocks. In recent interviews, two Ark analysts share how Wood has built the firm to weather pullbacks – and their responses provide insights into what it’s like to work at the reputed firm.

Read the full story here:

Famed investor Cathie Wood has staffed her firm with analysts in their 20s and 30s as she looks to predict the future. 2 analysts break down what it’s like to work at Ark Invest.


SPAC winners and losers 

Traders and clerks at the CME Group toss confetti to celebrate the final trading session of the year December 31, 2010

The red-hot SPAC craze isn’t slowing as 154 SPACs have raised $48.5 billion so far this year. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest studied 85 SPACs to examine the winners and losers in the ecosystem. He also shared why it will be important to monitor the SPAC market over the next two years.

Read the full story here:

The chairman of investment strategy at JPMorgan’s $2.2 trillion asset management arm studied 85 completed SPAC IPOs – and lays out the winners and losers in the ‘significant wealth transfers’ within the ecosystem


Stock pick central

Seeking experts who are willing to name names? Look no further:

Read the original article on Business Insider

The cult of Cathie Wood, plus SPAC-picking tips from a former CEO

Hello and welcome to Insider Investing. I’m Joe Ciolli, and I’m here to guide you through what’s been happening in markets, as well as what to expect in the coming weeks. Here’s what’s on the docket:

If you aren’t yet a subscriber to Insider Investing, you can sign up here.

Have thoughts on the newsletter? Just want to talk markets? Feel free to drop me a line at jciolli@insider.com or on Twitter @JoeCiolli.


Your weekly recap/outlook

The CEO of Robinhood, a hedge fund manager who lost 53% in January, a day-trader who made $48 million on GameStop, and Ken Griffin walk into a bar…

No, this is not the beginning of a bad finance joke. It’s the actual collection of individuals grilled by Congress on Thursday in a high-profile display of political theater the stock market has rarely experienced before.

Gabe Plotkin – the famed hedge funder who took home $846 million in 2020, then took a massive bath on his GameStop short last month – was asked with a straight face if he’s a registered broker. He was later asked if he thought short-selling constituted market manipulation, to which he replied “no” (presumably because it doesn’t). Nobody pronounced Vlad Tenev’s last name right for five straight hours. Keith Gill (known on YouTube as Roaring Kitty) was mostly ignored. It was nobody’s idea of a productive time.

But the sheer fact that the hearing happened at all shows that the Reddit-based day-trader community has everyone’s attention, and isn’t going anywhere. So what comes next? Despite his lack of air time on Thursday, Gill is still facing significant legal hurdles. Robinhood still has many questions to answer about its operations, its role in “inciting” reckless trading, and just how much money it has under management – not to mention that IPO it’s been planning. And only when first-quarter hedge filings start to trickle out will we get a full idea of who won and lost during the whole ordeal.

Outside of Reddit mania, the press for more stimulus continued. The timeline for Biden’s $1.9 trillion package is looking like mid-March now, and there’s still considerable haggling over what exactly will be included. On the economics front, debate is waging over inflation, and whether the sudden fiscal injection will cause prices to overheat. If that happens, it could mean bad news for the Reddit traders riding high on momentum stocks right now – and perhaps an opportunity for a short-seller redemption.


The cult of Cathie Wood

cathie wood ceo ark invest profile 2x1

Cathie Wood, the founder of ARK Invest, has amassed legions of obsessed followers. Wood has become a favorite of the Wall Street Bets crowd, and successfully kept control of her firm. Now, with assets accumulating and new funds coming out, the question is: can she sustain her success?

Read the full story here:

Cathie Wood made a career betting on the future. Insiders reveal how the ARK Invest founder won the funds (and hearts) of memelord traders and boomer investors alike.


Picking SPACs with the former CEO of Barings

Tom Finke

Tom Finke is the former CEO of the $345 billion asset manager Barings and a board member of Invesco. He and his partner recently raised $115 million via their SPAC Adara Acquisition Corp. (ADRA). Finke breaks down why he is jumping on the SPAC bandwagon and shares what to look for in SPACs.

Read the full story here:

Tom Finke recounts how he went from running a $345 billion money manager to joining in the SPAC boom as a sponsor – and shares 3 characteristics investors should look for in an ideal blank-check company


4 real-estate investing trends from a manager who’s returned 446% to clients over the past decade

brooklyn real estate better than manhattan green 2x1

Jeff Kolitch has returned 446% to investors via the $1.1 billion Baron Real Estate Fund since 2009. The 29-year veteran investor breaks down the four trends driving the real-estate market in 2021. He also shares 11 “attractively valued” real-estate stocks and their upside potential.

Read the full story here:

A 29-year real-estate veteran who’s returned 446% to investors in the past decade breaks down the 4 trends driving the sector in 2021 – and shares 11 ‘attractively valued’ stocks


Stock pick central

Seeking experts who are willing to name names? Look no further:

Read the original article on Business Insider

How Robinhood gets users addicted, plus Cathie Wood talks Tesla and GameStop

Hello and welcome to Insider Investing. I’m Joe Ciolli, and I’m here to guide you through what’s been happening in markets, as well as what to expect in the coming weeks. Here’s what’s on the docket:

If you aren’t yet a subscriber to Insider Investing, you can sign up here.

Have thoughts on the newsletter? Just want to talk markets? Feel free to drop me a line at jciolli@insider.com or on Twitter @JoeCiolli.


Your weekly outlook

The past week saw the market zeitgeist shift somewhat away from the pesky day-trading rascals on Reddit and towards bitcoin, which repeatedly set new records. The red-hot cryptocurrency got a coveted co-sign from Tesla, which said that it bought $1.5 billion worth and would start accepting it as payment.

It then surged even more to all-time highs after further adoption from the likes of Mastercard and BNY Mellon. With bitcoin now back at record highs, some age-old questions will persist over the coming weeks: Can increasingly widespread adoption continue to offset concerns the coin’s price is overextended? And who else will follow the lead of these high-profile companies?

But the return of crypto didn’t mean all was quiet on the Reddit front. There was significant day-trader interest around cannabis stocks throughout the week, pegged to expectations that federal legalization will gather steam under the Biden administration. Volume for options – the preferred investing vehicle for risk-hungry Wall Street Bets users – surged to records.

The initial pop in cannabis names did quickly subside, raising questions of whether the Reddit crowd will again be able to achieve the level of consensus and interest that made its GameStop wager so effective. The sudden interest in the cannabis space also showed the unpredictability of the Reddit cohort, which seems to shift its focus at a moment’s notice.

Lastly, stimulus will remain at top of mind for investors this coming week, even if progress has been slow and frustrating at times. The market still responds immediately to any sort of incremental development, so keep an eye out for guidance from politicans or further package details.


The design features that make Robinhood so addictive

robinhood gamification trading app 2x1

By all indications, Robinhood has become the investing app for beginner retail traders. Its sleek design, flashy features, and simple interface have attracted 13 million users since 2013. Insider spoke with 10 users and industry experts to find out how Robinhood has transformed trading.

Read the full story here:

GENERATION ROBINHOOD: How the trading app conditioned its inexperienced users to obsessively play the market


Cathie Wood & Co. discuss Tesla, GameStop, and the Chinese stock behind Clubhouse

Cathie Wood

Last week Ark CEO Cathie Wood said stocks are not in a bubble, but bonds are. She and her team break down the implications of Tesla’s $1.5 billion bitcoin investment, and also share the investment case for the Chinese stock behind the audio chat app Clubhouse.

Read the full story here:

Cathie Wood and her analysts discuss why Tesla’s $1.5 billion bitcoin purchase could trigger a wave of corporate investments, the fallout of the GameStop-AMC phenomenon, and their bullish views on the Chinese stock behind Clubhouse


Short-selling strategies from the man who wrote the book on it

Nitin Sacheti Papyrus Headshot

Nitin Sacheti is the founder and portfolio manager of Papyrus Capital, a long/short hedge fund. In a book called “Downside Protection,” Sacheti detailed his unique short-selling strategy. He breaks down how he evaded the short squeeze on meme stocks, and shares what stocks he’s buying.

Read the full story here:

A hedge fund manager who wrote a definitive book on short-selling breaks down how his strategy helped him evade the squeeze on GameStop – and shares what types of stocks he’s buying and shorting now


Stock pick central

Seeking experts who are willing to name names? Look no further:

Read the original article on Business Insider

Hunting for the next GameStop, plus an exclusive chat with short-seller extraordinaire Carson Block

Hello everyone! Welcome to this weekly roundup of Investing stories from deputy editor Joe Ciolli. Please subscribe here to get this newsletter in your inbox every week.

gamestop line

Hello and welcome to Insider Investing. I’m Joe Ciolli, and I’m here to guide you through what’s been happening in markets, as well as what to expect in the coming weeks. Here’s what’s on the docket:

If you aren’t yet a subscriber to Insider Investing, you can sign up here.

Have thoughts on the newsletter? Just want to talk markets? Feel free to drop me a line at jciolli@insider.com or on Twitter @JoeCiolli.


Your weekly outlook

If you expected GameStop mania to subside this past week, then you were sorely mistaken. The stock – and its similarly shorted brethren – took traders on a volatile ride, following steep sell-offs with torrid rallies. The so-called meme stocks are now well below highs, but also didn’t collapse immediately like many thought they would.

This recent price action has set up a make-or-break week of sorts for the Reddit revolution. Much of the focus will be on whether the retail-investor cohort can “hold the line” and avoid being swept up in profit-taking. Attention will also be paid to the brewing situation surrounding famed Wall Street Bets day trader Keith Gill, who’s under investigation as regulators look at his previous financial-advisement job.

Another lingering concern is that the Reddit legion will try to squeeze another heavily shorted asset. They already tried – and mostly failed – to do it with silver this past week. Given how that squeeze fizzled out, market watchers will be asking themselves if the jig is up, or if silver was just the wrong target.

The stimulus front will also be jam-packed with updates. President Joe Biden has made it clear that he’s going to push through his $1.9 trillion bill with or without GOP backing, and concrete progress is being made to that end.

To date, positive stimulus updates have been met with stock-market gains as traders scramble to price in a stronger economic recovery. And conversely, any hold-ups have seen sharp selling. Expect volatility along those lines as stimulus haggling continues into next week.


Hunting for the next GameStop

gamestop store crowded

In the wake of GameStop mania, everyone from day traders to institutional investors are scrambling to scoop up shares of the next big short squeeze target. Firms across Wall Street have been busy analyzing the market and pinpointing such names they recommend buying now.

Read the full stories here:

Buy these 26 heavily shorted stocks as retail traders trigger wild rallies in Wall Street’s least liked names, Wells Fargo says

Jefferies says these 20 heavily shorted and lightly traded stocks could see big jumps in the event of a GameStop-like squeeze


An exclusive chat with short-seller extraordinaire Carson Block

Carson Block, muddy waters

In an exclusive interview, Carson Block of Muddy Waters Research explained to us how bubbles are forming in individual stocks like GameStop. The famed short-seller cites constant flows to passive investment vehicles, which he says is driving out active managers, leaving the market more vulnerable to sell-offs.

Read the full story here:

Famed short seller Carson Block says a new type of liquidity bubble is feeding the wild swings in day-trading favorites like GameStop – and that stocks have become a fragile ‘game’


How to contend with inflation fears stemming from stimulus

Fed Jerome Powell

Inflation has not meaningfully risen in the US in several years, but waves of fiscal and monetary stimulus could change that and impact inflation-sensitive assets. Five experts dive into the prospects of an inflation comeback and how to position portfolios for it.

Read the full story here:

Biden’s stimulus plan is heightening Wall Street’s worries that inflation will upend the stock market. We spoke to 4 experts on what the raging debate means for investors, and how to take advantage of it.


Stock pick central

Seeking experts who are willing to name names? Look no further:

Read the original article on Business Insider

How to navigate GameStop madness – The strategy that outsmarted Wall Street – How Reddit traders are driving a populist movement

Hello and welcome to Insider Investing. I’m Joe Ciolli, and I’m here to guide you through what’s been happening in markets, as well as what to expect in the coming weeks. This week is packed with all the GameStop and Reddit content you could ever ask for.

Here’s what’s on the docket:

If you aren’t yet a subscriber to Insider Investing, you can sign up here.

Have thoughts on the newsletter? Just want to talk markets? Feel free to drop me a line at jciolli@insider.com or on Twitter @JoeCiolli.


Your weekly recap and outlook

If you’re reading this, that means you managed to make it through the stock market’s most absurb week in recent memory. You’ll always remember where you were when Reddit day traders banded together and pumped 90’s nostalgia stocks like GameStop to the moon – an unprecedented uprising that sent ripples through every layer of the financial system.

The story starts, of course, with the traders themselves, who conduct their business on r/WallStreetBets subreddit. They threw the exact perfect mix of market savvy, anti-establishment sentiment, and sheer will into a blender and came out with a destabilizing cocktail that left established Wall Streeters scrambling clean up the mess.

The central concept was relatively simple: focus on buying heavily shorted stocks, which will hopefully squeeze those positions until they’re forced to close, pushing the stock up even further. Ideally that inspires people that feel left out to pile in. Rinse, repeat. That these companies – which included Nokia, BlackBerry, and BB Liquidating (formerly known as Blockbuster) – were nostalgic, past-their-prime businesses was an added bonus to the Reddit crowd, who are never ones to pass up a chance at irony.

But the phenomenon goes far deeper than that. Underlying the memes and the hubris rests an anti-establishment streak. For a portion of the WallStreetBets crowd, this undertaking isn’t just about making money. It’s about making Old Wall Street pay, and the group isn’t exactly being coy about that fact. “It seems Occupy Wall Street had the wrong approach,” the official WallStreetBets Twitter account posted on January 26.

So what’s the damage look like on Wall Street so far? Arguably the biggest casualty has been Melvin Capital, which held a short position on GameStop that’s left them down 53% year-to-date – performance so bad that investing titans Steve Cohen and Ken Griffin have had to bail them out

But it hasn’t been all negative. Silver Lake Partners saw a convertible-debt investment strike gold when AMC Entertainment’s stock surged this past week. The firm was able to flip that debt into stock, which it then sold at the peak for a smooth $113 million profit. Some have called it the “trade of a lifetime.”

Then there’s also the matter of the preferred trading platform for the Reddit army: Robinhood. The online brokerage had a week for the ages after restricting further buying of GameStop, then backtracking after backlash from everyone from AOC to Chamath Palihapitiya. There have also been reports that Robinhood was forced to draw on bank credit lines amid the madness. How this impacts the company’s quest to go public this year will be a story to watch in the coming weeks.

So where do we go from here? One thing to watch is how hedge funds react. They were already shedding equity exposure in the early days of the GameStop craze, and it’s possible the market dislocations exploited by Redditors will cause them to retreat further.

Many other questions remain. Who else was caught short and ultimately doomed by WallStreetBets? Who else raked in big returns like Silver Lake? When will the so-called meme stocks come plunging back down to earth? And will the stock market ever be the same? Keep watching this space to find out the answer to those, plus many more.


JOIN OUR LIVE EVENT: A conversation with Insider’s markets gurus on the GameStop and Reddit-trader phenomenon

Join us Tuesday, February 2, 2021 at 1:00 p.m ET as deputy editor Joe Ciolli, markets and economy reporter Ben Winck, and senior investing reporter Vicky Huang discuss the GameStop phenomenon, the influence of WallStreetBets, and how the Reddit-fueled trade might end.

Register here.

WallStreetBets logo


How to navigate a GameStop crazed environment

GameStop Clerk

Ally Chief Investment Strategist Lindsey Bell says the meme-stock rally could be a good thing for average investors. Still, she says traders who want to play the newest hot stocks should understand they are speculating. Bell also advises investors to have a plan and stick to it when things get strange, and understand how unusual this time is.

Read the full story here:

A chief investment strategist breaks down how the GameStop saga could upend long-standing practices on Wall Street – and shares her 4-part advice for navigating the frenzied trading environment


The intricate strategy GameStop traders used to outsmart Wall Street

gamestop store line crowd

Steve Sosnick – the chief strategist of Interactive Brokers and head trader of its trading unit Timber Hill – breaks down the short squeeze and gamma squeeze Reddit traders put in place for GameStop. He also shares how the massive moves in these so-called meme stocks could permanently alter markets.

Read the full story here:

A veteran options trader breaks down the intricate strategy that Reddit traders used to outsmart Wall Street’s bet against GameStop – and shares 2 ways the parabolic rally could permanently alter the stock market


How Reddit-trader mania represents a full-fledged populist movement

occupy wall street reddit 2x1

The Reddit-fueled trading phenomenon lifting GameStop, AMC, and other stocks is backed by populist sentiments. Cries to dethrone the establishment and redistribute wealth resemble those seen at Occupy Wall Street protests in 2011. The trend has all but certainly formed a bubble, but its political messaging can still live on.

Read the full story here:

The GameStop mania driven by Reddit traders isn’t simple market trolling. It’s a populist movement threatening to disrupt the financial system to a degree Occupy Wall Street only dreamed of.


JOIN OUR LIVE EVENT: Execs reveal what’s on tap for the red-hot IPO market in 2021

Join Insider on Wednesday, February 3 at 2:30 p.m. ET as Insider’s chief finance correspondent Dakin Campbell moderates a panel featuring Kim Posnett, Goldman Sachs partner and Internet investment banking chief, Greg Rodgers, a Latham & Watkins LLP attorney and direct-listings expert, and Mitchell Green, a venture capitalist at Lead Edge Capital who backed Uber, Spotify, Asana, and Alibaba.

These IPO experts will discuss what you can expect for the year ahead and how the recent changes have dramatically altered the calculus for startup entrepreneurs. They will also take reader questions. 

Register here.


Stock pick central

Seeking experts who are willing to name names? Look no further:

Read the original article on Business Insider

Crypto whale lays out bitcoin’s bull case – Cathie Wood’s 2021 forecasts – How to pick tiny biotech winners

Hello and welcome to Insider Investing. I’m Joe Ciolli, and I’ll be shepherding you through what to expect in markets in the coming weeks, while also featuring some of Insider’s best work on the subject.

Regular readers may notice that this newsletter has moved from its previous slot early in the week to Sunday afternoon. This will be the new publication time, so please do continue to enjoy!

Here’s what’s on the docket:

If you aren’t yet a subscriber to Insider Investing, you can sign up here.

Have thoughts on the newsletter? Just want to talk markets? Feel free to drop me a line at jciolli@insider.com or on Twitter @JoeCiolli.


Your weekly outlook

All eyes will be on corporate earnings this coming week, with Apple, Facebook, Tesla, and Amazon set to report. Given the massive weighting of these stocks in major indexes, it’s not an exaggeration to say their quarterly results – and, perhaps more importantly, their forward outlooks – will dictate the entire market’s direction.

The question is the same for these tech titans: Will they be able to keep delivering (and forecasting) stronger-than-expected profit growth? It’s something they’ve been able to do for years, even as estimates have gotten more ambitious. With their valuations sitting at all-time peaks across every imaginable measure, these tech titans are especially vulnerable to any disappointment.

But if the latest earnings report for mega-cap tech stalwart Netflix – which handily blew past estimates for subscriber growth – is any indication, investors may not have much to worry about. In a post-pandemic world where the products and services provided by these companies are still attracting major demand, there’s seemingly endless profit-growth opportunity.

And as it pertains to Tesla specifically, just ask the legions of scorched short-sellers what it’s like to bet against Elon Musk. They lost roughly $39 billion in 2020 as Tesla’s stock soared 743%. Will the company’s earnings give them reason to start shorting again? Tune in Wednesday to find out.


The bull case for crypto from a CEO that’s poured $1 billion into bitcoin

bitcoin

Michael Saylor is the chief executive officer of business intelligence and software firm MicroStrategy, which has plowed more than $1 billion of its funds into bitcoin.

In a recent “SALT Talks” interview with SkyBridge founder Anthony Scaramucci, Saylor recounted how he went from a bitcoin skeptic to its “most important proselytizer.” He also shared the eureka moment that changed his beliefs about bitcoin and laid out the hurdles that the digital asset still has to jump through to become the “newest institutional safe-haven asset.”

Read the full story here:

Michael Saylor has invested over $1 billion of MicroStrategy’s funds in Bitcoin. The software CEO-turned Bitcoin whale explains why he is making such a massive bet on the digital asset.


Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest shares its 2021 outlook on the economy, bitcoin, and Tesla

Cathie Wood

All of the five active ETFs run by Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest returned more than 100% in 2020. This strong performance helped the firm rake in over $20 billion last year and bring its total assets under management to $50 billion, according to Morningstar and Bloomberg data.

In a recent markets update, Wood shared her 2021 outlook, breaking down why the current bull market is very different from the dot-com bubble. ARK crypto analyst Yassine Elmandjra also detailed a new three-layered framework for valuing bitcoin‘s fundamentals, while analyst Tasha Keeney shared her Tesla outlook for 2021.

Read the full story here:

Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest runs 5 active ETFs that more than doubled in 2020. She and her analysts share their 2021 outlooks on the economy, bitcoin, and Tesla.


How to make the biggest gains in the smallest biotech stocks

traders

Mutual fund manager Darren Chervitz has delivered returns of 32% a year for five years, investing in the market’s smallest stocks. Along the way, he’s become an expert in picking biotech stocks.

In an exclusive interview, Chervitz told Insider how he maximizes gains and reduces the risk of failures and blowups.

Read the full story here:

Darren Chervitz is crushing other fund managers in one of the riskiest parts of the market: small biotech stocks. He tells us how he scores the biggest gains, minimizes the risk of costly failures, and names his top 2 picks in the space.


JOIN OUR LIVE EVENT: Execs reveal what’s on tap for the red-hot IPO market in 2021

Join Insider on Wednesday, February 3 at 2:30 p.m. ET as Insider’s chief finance correspondent Dakin Campbell moderates a panel featuring Kim Posnett, Goldman Sachs partner and Internet investment banking chief, Greg Rodgers, a Latham & Watkins LLP attorney and direct-listings expert, and Mitchell Green, a venture capitalist at Lead Edge Capital who backed Uber, Spotify, Asana, and Alibaba.

These IPO experts will discuss what you can expect for the year ahead and how the recent changes have dramatically altered the calculus for startup entrepreneurs. They will also take reader questions. 

Register here.

uber ipo


Stock pick central

Seeking experts who are willing to name names? Look no further:

Read the original article on Business Insider