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February 2, 2021

Without a stimulus, unemployment could stay high for a decade

Unemployment insurance filing — A man fills out paperwork while waiting for his number to be called at an unemployment event in Tulsa, Oklahoma on July 15, 2020.
Nick Oxford/The Washington Post/Getty Images

The Congressional Budget Office projects that unemployment won’t drop to pre-pandemic levels for a decade.
But an additional stimulus could have a major impact on unemployment.
Economists say the projections show the need for more relief.
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The US unemployment rate may not reach pre-pandemic levels for the rest of the decade without additional stimulus from the federal government, according to projections from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

As Insider’s Joseph Zeballos-Roig reported, that analysis sees the unemployment rate falling to 5.7% this year, and 5% in 2022. It’s projected to hit 4% around 2025. In February 2020, before the economic shock from the coronavirus pandemic, the unemployment rate was 3.5%.

Overall, the CBO projects that the total number of people employed in the US will reach pre-pandemic levels in 2024. The CBO projections also see GDP returning to pre-pandemic levels in mid-2021, with real GDP growing 3.7% this year.

But those projections don’t take into account any additional government spending on the pandemic; as Zeballos-Roig reported, the analysis itself could come into play during stimulus negotiations.

President Biden’s proposed stimulus could have a major impact on unemployment

David Kelly, the chief global strategist at JPMorgan Funds, previously wrote that President Joe Biden’s stimulus plan could drastically lower unemployment. In a “conservative” simulation run by JPMorgan of the $1.9 trillion relief package, which assumed that the ultimate cost was $1.5 trillion and $1.2 trillion was dispersed by September, unemployment dipped below 5% and “the Biden rescue plan could boost nominal GDP growth to 11.4% year-over-year by the end of this year.”

In a note on Monday, Kelly further emphasized the impact that the stimulus could have on unemployment levels, especially as GDP levels grow.

“A statistical model of the relationship between real GDP growth and employment suggests that this could boost payroll employment by close to 10 million jobs by the second quarter of 2022,” Kelly writes. But, he added: “It needs to be emphasized, of course, that this historical relationship is not that strong a guide in a very rapidly growing economy and that the inevitable delays in restarting and setting up businesses could delay this hiring.”

Another factor in shrinking unemployment rates is the number of people of working age actively seeking employment: During the pandemic, fewer people have immigrated to the US, and millions of Americans have stopped looking for work, meaning we can assume “that the labor force by the second quarter of 2022 may be no higher than it was in the fourth quarter of 2019.”

That crashing labor force – combined with quick jobs growth – could lead to a quickly sinking unemployment rate. For instance, Kelly said that adding 10 million jobs and four million people to the labor force could bring the unemployment rate to 2.8%.

But a hot jobs market like that, where wages are growing and it’s harder to hire people, could also bring back in people like retirees and new immigrants.

As Kelly writes, “the exercise is useful because it re-emphasizes the potential for the combination of pandemic recovery and massive fiscal stimulus to overheat the economy.”

Some economists agree, saying that the CBO projections underscore the need for more stimulus.

“The unemployment rate masks exits from the labor force – especially women who are caring for children who often are not in school,” Gabriel Mathy, an assistant professor of economics at American University, said in a statement. “For those people that are not counted in the unemployment statistics, we’re going to need to run the economy hot.”

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January 15, 2021

Biden’s COVID-19 stimulus checks plan: $600 + $1,400 = $2,000

President-elect Joe Biden unveiled a $1.9 trillion COVID-19 stimulus plan on Thursday that includes $1,400 checks.
Biden had pledged $2,000 direct payments to Americans.
His plan adds $1,400 in stimulus money to the $600 paid out to eligible Americans as part of the last COVID-19 relief package to bring the total doled out to $2,000.
But based on criticism of the proposal online, there’s confusion and anger about why the plan does not explicitly include $2,000 direct payments.
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President-elect Joe Biden released his COVID-19 stimulus plan on Thursday, and it includes $1,400 checks to add to the $600 direct payments provided via the most recent stimulus package – bringing the total distributed amount to $2,000.

This is Biden’s approach to making good on his pledge to provide $2,000 checks to eligible Americans, a popular proposal that gained support from President Donald Trump and House Democrats in December but was rejected by Senate Republicans.

In December, House Democrats passed a standalone bill (the Cash Act) for $2000 checks, but it stipulated that the payments would be $1400 to supplement the $600 direct payments in the most recent relief package signed by Trump. Biden’s plan is in line with the Cash Act.

But Biden’s proposal already appears to be generating confusion and anger, as some appeared to expect Biden to include $2,000 direct payments on top of the $600 included in the $900 billion COVID-19 relief bill signed by Trump in late December. Just four days ago, Biden tweeted: “We need $2,000 stimulus checks.”

Biden’s plan garnered a fair amount of criticism Thursday:

—Katelyn Burns (@transscribe) January 14, 2021

—Rhea defund police Butcher (@RheaButcher) January 14, 2021

—Nathan Bernhardt (@jonbernhardt) January 14, 2021

—Sage Young (@sageyoungest) January 14, 2021

Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York was also critical of Biden’s plan over the $1400 checks.

“$2,000 means $2,000. $2,000 does not mean $1,400,″ Ocasio-Cortez told the Washington Post on Thursday.

The president-elect’s stimulus plan is $1.9 trillion, and on top of $1,400 checks includes $130 billion in funds to reopen schools, $350 billion in state and local assistance, and $400 in weekly federal unemployment benefits through September 2021.

Biden is set to be inaugurated on January 20, and the Senate will then be forced to balance confirming his Cabinet nominees, working on passing another COVID-19 stimulus, and holding Trump’s impeachment trial over the Capitol siege.

Joseph Zeballos-Roig contributed reporting.

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January 5, 2021

Some H&R Block and TurboTax customers are experiencing issues getting their second stimulus checks

Some H&R Block and TurboTax customers may experience delays in getting their second stimulus payments due to processing issues.
H&R Block said it will try to resolve the issue by end of day Tuesday.
For those who are still having trouble, the IRS is also trying to resolve the issue, and some recipients can try to get the payment via a tax credit.
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If you use H&R Block or TurboTax, you might experience a delay in getting your second stimulus check.

As the $600 payments roll out, some users of the services logged on to see where their payment is – only to discover the account number listed may not be theirs. Those who filed their 2019 taxes with either service seem to be experiencing issues, according to CNBC.

“The IRS determines where second stimulus payments were sent, and in some cases, money was sent to a different account than the first stimulus payment last spring,” H&R Block said in a statement. “We immediately deposited millions of stimulus payments to customers’ bank accounts and onto our Emerald Prepaid Mastercard yesterday, and all direct deposits are being processed.”

H&R Block added that they would try to resolve this issue by the end of the day on Tuesday.

The IRS has also said that some payments may have been sent to accounts that are no longer active, and the payments were then sent back. If that is the case, the IRS said it is “exploring options to correct these payments” and “if you have not received your full payment by the time you file your 2020 tax return, you may claim the Recovery Rebate Credit on your tax return.”

This isn’t the first time H&R Block and TurboTax users experienced stimulus check issues.

When the first stimulus payments rolled out in April, those who used the tax prepping services had trouble getting direct deposit for their payment if they had an advance on their tax refund or had the tax preparation fee taken from their refund.

Those who are still experiencing issues with their second stimulus payment are encouraged to reach out to (+1) 800-HRBLOCK and @HRBlockAnswers on Twitter.

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January 2, 2021

Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk increased their wealth by $217 billion in 2020. For this amount, over 100 million Americans could get $2,000 checks.

bezomusk2 — Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos.
John Locher/AP and Odd Andersen/AFP via Getty Images

Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk alone increased their net worth by $217 billion last year, according to Bloomberg.
For this amount, more than 100 million Americans can receive $2,000 checks.
Collectively, the net worth of the world’s 500 richest people rose to about $1.8 trillion, a 31% increase that represents the largest annual gain in the eight years that Bloomberg has tracked these figures.
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While many Americans were economically upended by the coronavirus pandemic, and now await a decision from Congress on whether they’ll receive a $2,000 stimulus check soon, the world’s richest people had raked in record gains in 2020.

Last year, Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk collectively increased their net worth by $217 billion last year, an amount that could cut $2,000 checks for more than 100 million Americans.

The world’s richest person, Amazon CEO Bezos, is now worth about $190 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. And Tesla founder and CEO Elon Musk took second place with about $170 billion, surpassing Microsoft’s Bill Gates.

Musk’s net worth, in particular, grew the fastest in 2020, Bloomberg reported. His net worth is primarily made up of Tesla shares, of which he owns about 75%, according to Bloomberg.

These figures come as millions of people in the United States remain jobless because of the economic devastation brought on by the coronavirus pandemic.

Congress in March passed the first coronavirus stimulus package, which included $1,200 in direct payments to Americans. It was an attempt to offset the financial ruin after small businesses nationwide were shuttered to curtail the spread of the virus.

Americans waited nine months to receive a second stimulus check. In December, Congress finally reached a deal on the second stimulus relief package, an agreement that included $600 checks to taxpayers.

But the House and the Senate are once again at odds as House Democrats are pushing for $2,000 checks to go out. Senate Republicans, led by Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, have repeatedly struck down the effort.

Meanwhile, employment rates have been steadily rising in the US. But the November jobs report from the Labor Department said about 15 million people did not work that month because of the pandemic.

Globally, the outlook is much grimmer.

In a report released last year, the World Bank predicted that global poverty would rise in 2020 for the first time in more than two decades because of the coronavirus pandemic.

“The newest and most immediate threat to poverty reduction, COVID-19, has unleashed a worldwide economic disaster whose shock waves continue to spread,” an overview from the World Bank reads. “Without an adequate global response, the cumulative effects of the pandemic and its economic fallout, armed conflict, and climate change will exact high human and economic costs well into the future.”

Collectively, the net worth of the world’s 500 richest people grew about $1.8 trillion last year, according to Bloomberg. It’s a 31% increase that represents the largest annual gain in the eight years that Bloomberg has tracked these figures.

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January 2, 2021

Nancy Pelosi’s San Francisco house vandalized with a pig’s head, spray-painted anarchist symbol and graffiti about $2,000 stimulus checks

Police responded to a report of vandalism outside Nancy Pelosi’s San Francisco home.
The garage doors were spray-painted with a message believed to be about stimulus checks and an anarchist symbol.
A severed pig’s head, covered in fake blood, was left on the driveway.
The incident comes when tensions are running high due to Senate Republicans blocking a House-passed bill to increase stimulus checks from $600 to $2,000.
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Early Friday morning, police were called to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s San Francisco home after vandals defaced the garage door and a severed pig’s head, covered in fake blood, was left on the driveway.

The white garage door of the Pacific Heights property was covered in graffiti. It read: “$2k CANCEL RENT!”

This is most likely a reference to Pelosi’s proposed ¢2,000 stimulus checks. Below the initial message, the vandals wrote: “We want everything!”

Next to this, the traditional ‘anarchy’ symbol – a circled capital A letter – was spray-painted.

—🇺🇸Maggie VandenBerghe🇺🇸 (@FogCityMidge) January 1, 2021

In front of the house, a dead pig’s head covered in fake blood was left sitting on the driveaway.

A San Francisco Police Department spokesperson confirmed to Fox News that officers were dispatched after responding to reports of vandalism at around 2 a.m. on New Year’s Day.

They said: “Unidentified suspect(s) had painted graffiti on the garage door and left a pig’s head on the sidewalk.”

The house, one of several homes Pelosi owns in California, has previously been used as a protest site.

It is believed that Pelosi was not at home during the incident, according to CBS SF Bay Area. It is thought that she is currently in Washington, DC.

The defaced garage has since been covered with garbage bags and the fake blood and pig’s head have been removed.

—John Dennis (@RealJohnDennis) January 1, 2021

The incident comes at a time when tensions are running high in Congress over stimulus checks.

On Friday, Senate Republicans blocked a House-passed bill to increase stimulus checks from $600 to $2,000.

Pelosi had, in recent weeks, reached a rare agreement with President Donald Trump over increasing the amount of money Americans would receive.

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December 29, 2020

House passes bill to increase $600 stimulus checks to $2,000. It now goes to the Senate.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi — The House passed a $2.2 trillion stimulus to help keep the US economy afloat during the coronavirus pandemic.
Nicholas Kamm/AFP via Getty Images

The House passed a bill to increase the $600 stimulus checks to $2,000 in a vote on Monday. The vote passed 275 to 134.
President Donald Trump signed the $900 billion bipartisan coronavirus relief package on Sunday, renewing his calls for Congress to raise the amount of the checks to $2,000.
GOP leaders in the Senate have signaled their opposition to raising the dollar amount of the checks.
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The House of Representatives passed a bill to increase the $600 stimulus checks to $2,000 in a vote on Monday.

The vote passed 275 to 134. Forty-four House Republicans joined the Democrats in approving the bill.

President Donald Trump signed the $900 billion bipartisan coronavirus relief package – which includes the $600 stimulus checks – on Sunday, renewing his calls for Congress to raise the amount of the checks to $2,000.

GOP leaders in the Senate, however, have signaled their opposition to raising the dollar amount of the checks. The addition of $2,000 stimulus checks would likely push the total amount of the stimulus package well over $1 trillion – a price point which has some GOP opposition.

In his statement Sunday, the president said he wants “far less wasteful spending and more money going to the American people in the form of $2,000 checks per adult and $600 per child,” adding that he is demanding “many rescissions” to the bill.

Following Trump’s criticism of the relief bill, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said in a Sunday statement that the president to “immediately call on Congressional Republicans to end their obstruction and to join him and Democrats.”

“Every Republican vote against this bill is a vote to deny the financial hardship that families face and to deny the American people the relief they need,” Pelosi continued.

It is not immediately clear if congressional GOP members will answer the president’s call for higher checks as the bill is sent over to the Senate for a final vote in Trump’s waning weeks in the White House.

President-elect Joe Biden has signaled his support for $2,000 direct payments earlier Monday, showing renewed promise that if the current bill is rejected in the Senate, that it could be resurrected under the incoming administration and new Congress.

This story is breaking. Check back for more details.

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December 26, 2020

Jobless benefits for about 14 million Americans expire, as Trump still refuses to sign the pandemic aid package containing $600 stimulus checks

donald trump hands — US President Donald Trump.
Alex Wong/Getty Images

Jobless benefits for millions of Americans expired Saturday.
A $2.3 trillion pandemic aid and spending package approved by Republicans and Democrats would extend special unemployment benefits, but President Donald Trump has so far refused to sign it.
Trump is unhappy with the massive bill, in part because he says that one-off $600 stimulus checks for struggling Americans are not large enough. He wants $2,000 checks.
Trump has not vetoed the bill and could still sign it in the coming days. The package contains $1.4 trillion for normal government spending — without it, a government shutdown looms.
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Jobless benefits for millions of Americans expired on Saturday, after President Donald Trump refused to sign into law a $2.3 trillion pandemic aid and spending package.

Trump is unhappy with the massive bill, in part because he says that one-off $600 stimulus checks for struggling Americans are not large enough. He has demanded the amount be raised to $2,000 – but House Republicans on Thursday blocked a Democratic attempt to increase the size of the checks.

Trump stunned Republicans and Democrats when he said Wednesday that he was unhappy with the massive bill, which provides $892 billion in badly needed coronavirus relief, including extending special unemployment benefits expiring on Saturday, and $1.4 trillion for normal government spending.

Without Trump’s signature, about 14 million people could lose those extra benefits, according to Labor Department data. A partial government shutdown will begin on Tuesday unless Congress can agree a stop-gap government funding bill before then.

The bill was flown to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort on Thursday. While the outgoing president’s strategy for the bill remains unclear, he has not vetoed it and could still sign it in the coming days.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi plans to hold a vote to approve $2,000 stimulus checks on Monday.

After months of wrangling, Republicans and Democrats agreed to the $2.3 trillion package on December 20, with the support of the White House. Trump, who hands over power to Democratic President-elect Joe Biden on January 20, did not object to terms of the deal before Congress voted it through on Monday night.

But since then, he has complained that the bill gives too much money to special interests, cultural projects, and foreign aid. He has also said its one-time $600 stimulus checks to millions of struggling Americans were too small – a view supported by Democrats, who have long-argued for a larger stimulus package.

“Why would politicians not want to give people $2,000, rather than only $600?…Give our people the money!” the billionaire president tweeted on Christmas Day, much of which he spent golfing.

Many economists agree the bill’s aid is too low but say the immediate support is still welcome and necessary.

A source familiar with the situation told Reuters that Trump’s objection to the bill caught many White House officials by surprise.

On Saturday, he was scheduled to remain in Mar-a-Lago. Biden, whose November 3 electoral victory Trump refuses to acknowledge, is spending the holiday in his home state of Delaware and had no public events scheduled for Saturday.

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December 26, 2020

Donald Trump renewed his calls for $2,000 checks, but it’s unclear if he’ll veto the bipartisan stimulus package

Donald Trump wildcard — US President Donald Trump looks on during a ceremony presenting the Presidential Medal of Freedom to wrestler Dan Gable in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC on December 7, 2020.
Photo by SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images

President Donald Trump reiterated his support for $2,000 direct payments to Americans in a tweet on Friday.
“Why would politicians not want to give people $2000, rather than only $600?” he wrote.
It’s still unclear if Trump will sign or veto the stimulus relief package, which has been flown out to him in Florida.
A White House spokesperson did not immediately respond to Insider’s request for comment.
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President Donald Trump has once again called for $2,000 direct payments instead of the $600 checks currently included in the stimulus package.

“Made many calls and had meetings at Trump International in Palm Beach, Florida,” he tweeted Friday afternoon. “Why would politicians not want to give people $2000, rather than only $600? It wasn’t their fault, it was China. Give our people the money!”

It’s still unclear is if Trump will sign – or veto – the $900 billion stimulus relief package, which was flown out to him on Thursday for his signature. The president is currently in Florida where he’s been out golfing.

Trump first criticized the stimulus package Tuesday, saying he would ask Congress to amend the bill to raise direct payments from $600 to $2,000. Following Trump’s support for $2,000 checks, Democrats quickly moved to try and increase the size of the checks.

Democratic leaders attempted to use “unanimous consent” – where every lawmaker had to approve the measure – to increase the size of the checks, but House Republicans ultimately blocked the measure, Insider’s Joseph Zeballos-Roig reported.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she that she would bring the House back into session on Monday to vote on $2,000 checks.

If a deal isn’t reached, about 14 million Americans are at risk of losing their unemployment benefits on Saturday, according to The Washington Post. The pandemic has already upended the job market, leaving permanent damage in its wake.

The current stimulus package offers an additional $300 a week in unemployment benefits. Research from this past summer found that the CARES Act – which included $600 in weekly unemployment benefits and a $1,200 stimulus check for many Americans – likely kept 12 million Americans out of poverty.

A White House spokesperson did not immediately respond to Insider’s request for comment.

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December 23, 2020

INSIDER Poll: A $600 COVID-19 stimulus check is way too small, and most Americans think it should be over $1,500

protest stimulus — Protesters rally demanding economic relief during the coronavirus pandemic in New York City on August 5, 2020.
Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images

Republicans and Democrats in Congress agreed upon a new $900 billion coronavirus relief bill on Sunday which includes sending out the second round of stimulus checks for adults, just half the amount of the first round of stimulus checks in April.
According to Insider polling, 62% of respondents believe that the $600 checks are too little.
Additionally, 76% of respondents said the payments should be greater than $1,000 and 43% said the checks should be $2,000 or more.
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The second round of stimulus checks was agreed upon on Sunday by Democrats and Republicans in Congress as part of a $900 billion stimulus deal. The new checks will amount to $600 per adult under certain income limits -half the amount of the first round of stimulus checks of $1,200 which were sent out in April.

According to recent polling from Insider and SurveyMonkey, the new checks are not enough. The majority of survey respondents, 62%, said the $600 stimulus checks are too small.

When asked what the “right amount of money would be for a one-time federal economic stimulus payment at this time,” survey responses varied far and wide, but the median requested amount was $1,500 – just $300 more than the first stimulus check. A further breakdown of responses are as follows:

76% of respondents said the payment should be $1,000 or more.
43% of respondents said the payment should be $2,000 or more.
20% of respondents said that the payment should be less than the congressionally agreed-upon $600.

This analysis comes from a SurveyMonkey Audience poll taken on December 21. The poll collected 1,123 respondents who were asked about coronavirus, the congressional stimulus package, as well as a number of other questions.

In a video tweeted Tuesday night, President Donald Trump said that the $600 payments were insufficient, though the amount was introduced by the president’s appointed Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, as reported by The Washington Post.

“It really is a disgrace,” Trump said, later establishing his intention to ask Congress “to amend this bill and increase the ridiculously low $600 to $2,000 dollars.

In response, Democrats in Congress quickly jumped at the chance to increase the size of the stimulus checks. Michigan Rep. Rashida Tlaib announced late Tuesday night that she and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez had already drafted an amendment to the coronavirus relief bill to increase the checks to $2,000.

On Sunday, White House spokesperson Ben Williamson said that Trump planned to sign the agreed-upon $900 billion stimulus deal. But after the lame-duck president’s recent push against the package, it’s unclear if that will happen anytime soon.

SurveyMonkey Audience polls from a national sample balanced by census data of age and gender. Respondents are incentivized to complete surveys through charitable contributions. Generally speaking, digital polling tends to skew toward people with access to the internet. SurveyMonkey Audience doesn’t try to weight its sample based on race or income. Polling data collected 1,123 respondents on December 21. All polls carried approximately a 3 percentage point margin of error individually.

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December 21, 2020

Trump reportedly throws his support behind the $900 billion stimulus deal brokered by Republicans and Democrats in Congress

trump pentagon — Trump urged Congress to pass a coronavirus relief bill, but has called for larger stimulus checks.
Getty

President Donald Trump reportedly plans to sign the $900 billion stimulus deal brokered by Congress.
Senate and House leaders struck the long-awaited deal Sunday, ending months of failed negotiations.
The legislation will include $600 stimulus checks, $300 weekly unemployment benefits, small business aid, and funds for schools and universities.
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President Donald Trump plans to sign the $900 billion stimulus deal brokered by Congress, White House spokesperson Ben Williamson reportedly said.

“President Trump has pushed hard for months to send Americans badly needed financial relief,” he said, according to Politico’s Jake Sherman. “We look forward to Congress sending a bill to his desk imminently for signature.”

The White House did not immediately respond to Business Insider’s request for comment.

Senate and House leaders struck the long-awaited deal Sunday, clearing hurdles that threatened to shut down the government.

Republicans and Democrats came to the agreement after months of failed negotiations. The legislation will include $600 stimulus checks, $300 weekly federal unemployment benefits, small business aid, and funds for schools and universities.

Trump urged Congress to pass a coronavirus relief bill, but has called for larger checks on multiple occasions. On Saturday, the night before the deal was announced, the president called for Americans to receive “more money in direct payments.”

Congress is expected to vote on the package Monday, after which it would head to Trump’s desk to be signed.

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