Michael Burry, Jeremy Grantham, and other top investors are predicting an epic market crash. Here are their gravest warnings so far.

Michael Burry against a promotional backdrop for the movie "The Big Short."
Michael Burry.

  • Michael Burry, Jeremy Grantham, and other experts are predicting an epic market crash.
  • Jeffrey Gundlach, Leon Cooperman, and Stanley Druckenmiller expect a downturn too.
  • Here are the gravest warnings so far from eight top investors and commentators.
  • See more stories on Insider’s business page.

Michael Burry and Jeremy Grantham are bracing for a devastating crash across financial markets. They’re far from the only experts to warn that rampant speculation fueled by government stimulus programs can’t shore up asset prices forever.

The billionaire investors Leon Cooperman, Stanley Druckenmiller, and Jeffrey Gundlach have also sounded the alarm. The same is true for the “Shark Tank” star Kevin O’Leary, the market prophet Gary Shilling, and the “Rich Dad Poor Dad” author Robert Kiyosaki.

Here are the most striking warnings from these 8 market experts:

Michael Burry

Michael Burry against a gray promotional backdrop for the movie "The Big Short."
Michael Burry.

Burry in June described the markets as the “greatest speculative bubble of all time in all things” and said retail investors were buying into the hype around meme stocks and cryptocurrencies before the “mother of all crashes.”

Earlier this year, the investor of “The Big Short” fame, who runs Scion Asset Management, pointed to Tesla, GameStop, bitcoin, dogecoin, Robinhood, and the red-hot US housing market as signs of speculative excess.

Read more: Goldman Sachs says buy these 20 stocks that have the most upside potential right now — including 5 set to surge by at least 50%

Jeremy Grantham

Jeremy Grantham against a blurry background.
Jeremy Grantham.

Grantham in January said the market was a “fully fledged epic bubble” and described it as the “real McCoy.”

“When you have reached this level of obvious super-enthusiasm, the bubble has always, without exception, broken in the next few months, not a few years,” the legendary investor and GMO cofounder said.

“We will have to live, potentially, possibly, with the biggest loss of perceived value from assets that we have ever seen,” Grantham added.

Leon Cooperman

Leon Cooperman holding his glasses up to his right temple.
Leon Cooperman.

Cooperman expressed deep concerns about financial markets in May.

“Everything I look at would suggest caution, intermediate to long term, would be the rule of the day,” the billionaire investor and Omega Advisors boss said. “When this market has a reason to go down, it’s going to go down so fast your head’s going to spin.”

But Cooperman described himself as a “fully invested bear” because factors that typically cause bear markets — rising inflation, recession fears, a hostile Federal Reserve — weren’t present.

Read more: How to mine doge: An 18-year-old TikTok influencer shares his process for earning crypto without directly buying via a $700 rig — and explains how it works for other altcoins including litecoin

Stanley Druckenmiller

Stanley Druckenmiller speaking and gesturing against a black-and-orange background.
Stanley Druckenmiller.

Druckenmiller said in May that the bull market reminded him of the dot-com boom, but he cautioned that asset prices could continue rising for a while.

“I have no doubt that we are in a raging mania in all assets,” the billionaire investor and Duquesne Family Office chief said. “I also have no doubt that I don’t have a clue when that’s going to end.

“I knew we were in a raging mania in ’99, but it kept going on, and if you had shorted the tech stocks in mid-’99, you were out of business by the end of the year,” Druckenmiller added.

The investor indicated he would pull his cash out of equities in a matter of months.

“I will be surprised if we’re not out of the stock market by the end of the year, just because the bubbles can’t last that long,” he said.

Jeffrey Gundlach

Jeff Gundlach speaking against a black background.
Jeffrey Gundlach.

Equities are undeniably expensive, Gundlach said in March.

The billionaire investor and DoubleLine Capital boss said that claiming the stock market was “anything other than very overvalued versus history” was “just to be ignorant of all the metrics of valuation.” He predicted that stocks would fall by upwards of 15% when the downturn comes.

Gundlach, known as the “bond king,” predicted that the retail investors who had piled into meme stocks and other speculative assets wouldn’t stick around once prices started dropping.

“We’ll have a tremendous unwind of a lot of the money that thinks that the stock market is a one-way thing,” he said.

Read more: Famed investor Michael Burry is predicting the ‘mother of all crashes’. Here’s what 9 other key ‘Big Short’ players are doing now.

Kevin O’Leary

Kevin O'Leary speaking and pointing on "Shark Tank."
Kevin O’Leary.

O’Leary said in April that stocks would eventually crumble, but he framed the downturn as an educational opportunity for rookie investors.

“Buying the dip is more rock-and-roll, but what invariably happens is you go through a massive correction and you learn a very important lesson,” the “Shark Tank” star and O’Leary Funds chief said.

“The generation that is trading right now has never gone through a sustained correction. It’s coming — I don’t know when, I don’t know what’ll trigger it, but they will learn their lesson,” he continued.

“If you have a lot of leverage on, it’s a hell of a lesson because you end up in a negative net-worth position,” O’Leary added. “But you do learn from it.”

Robert Kiyosaki

Robert Kiyosaki against a green background.
Robert Kiyosaki.

Kiyosaki tweeted in June that he was expecting the greatest market crash ever.

“Biggest bubble in world history getting bigger,” the personal-finance guru and author of “Rich Dad Poor Dad” said. “Biggest crash in world history coming.”

Kiyosaki has accused the Federal Reserve of overstimulating markets and devaluing the dollar. He’s advised investors to prepare for the downturn by stocking up on precious metals and cryptocurrencies.

“ARE YOU READY?” he tweeted in April. “Boom, Bust, Mania, Crash, Depression. Mania in markets today. Prepare for biggest crash, depression in world history. What will Fed do? Print more money? Save more gold, silver, bitcoin.”

Gary Shilling

Gary Shilling against a yellow-and-orange background.
Gary Shilling.

Shilling predicted in April that financial markets would nosedive, but he declined to hazard a guess at when the crash would arrive.

“I’m not making any firm prediction as to when this thing is going to collapse,” the veteran forecaster and president of A. Gary Shilling & Co. said.

“Speculations outrun any logic and that’s probably going to be true of this one,” Shilling continued. “But at some point, boy, there’s going to be a lot of blood on the floor.”

Read the original article on Business Insider

Jeremy Grantham says the stock market is in a meme-fueled bubble – and shares the drastically lower valuation level that would make him a buyer of equities

Jeremy Grantham

Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham reiterated on Tuesday his view that the stock market is in a massive bubble as part of a lengthy interview with Bloomberg Opinion columnist John Authers.

From stretched valuations to investing in actual jokes, Grantham sees the current bubble as over extended and called the last 12 months a “classic finale to an 11-year bull market,” according to the interview.

“Peak overvaluation across each decile by price to sales, so that the most expensive 10% [of the stock market] is worse than it was in the 2000 tech bubble and the remaining nine deciles are much more expensive,” Grantham explained.

The market historian pointed to record levels in speculative indicators like individual trading volumes in call options and penny stocks as reason to believe that the market is currently in a bubble.

“Robinhood and commission-free retail trading have driven a surge of new investors with no experience of past bubbles and busts. So the scale of craziness is larger,” Grantham said, before adding that the $1+ trillion valuation of cryptocurrencies represents “pure dilution.”

“Dogecoin was created as a joke to make fun of cryptocurrencies being worthless, and not only has it taken off, but it’s such a success that second-level joke cryptocurrencies making fun of dogecoin have gone to multibillion-dollar valuations,” Grantham explained.

Grantham went on to call “meme-investing,” or gambling on a stock simply because it’s funny, a “nihilistic parody of actual investing,” according to the interview.

“This is it guys, the biggest US fantasy trip of all time,” Grantham said.

Read more: Goldman Sachs says buy these 15 overlooked stocks that its analysts are confident will each jump at least 10% by the end of the year

Despite Grantham’s belief that the stock market is currently in a bubble, he did explain when and how he would return to the market and be a buyer of stocks.

“Getting back in is technically easy but psychologically difficult: start to average in as the market reaches more reasonable levels, say 18x earnings,” Grantham said.

The S&P 500’s trailing 12-month price-to-earnings ratio currently stands at about 30x, while the S&P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratio is around 22x, according to data from FactSet.

Until the US stock market hits those valuation levels, Grantham has his eye on emerging market stocks and value stocks, according to the interview.

And as to when the stock market bubble may finally pop, Grantham said it’s difficult to predict because government stimulus programs and the successful vaccine roll-out “should make the bubble longer-lived and bigger.”

Read the original article on Business Insider

Jeremy Grantham reiterates his view that the stock market is in a meme-fueled bubble – and shares the drastically lower valuation level that would make him a buyer of equities

Jeremy Grantham

Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham reiterated on Tuesday his view that the stock market is in a massive bubble as part of a lengthy interview with Bloomberg Opinion columnist John Authers.

From stretched valuations to investing in actual jokes, Grantham sees the current bubble as over extended and called the last 12 months a “classic finale to an 11-year bull market,” according to the interview.

“Peak overvaluation across each decile by price to sales, so that the most expensive 10% [of the stock market] is worse than it was in the 2000 tech bubble and the remaining nine deciles are much more expensive,” Grantham explained.

The market historian pointed to record levels in speculative indicators like individual trading volumes in call options and penny stocks as reason to believe that the market is currently in a bubble.

“Robinhood and commission-free retail trading have driven a surge of new investors with no experience of past bubbles and busts. So the scale of craziness is larger,” Grantham said, before adding that the $1+ trillion valuation of cryptocurrencies represents “pure dilution.”

“Dogecoin was created as a joke to make fun of cryptocurrencies being worthless, and not only has it taken off, but it’s such a success that second-level joke cryptocurrencies making fun of dogecoin have gone to multibillion-dollar valuations,” Grantham explained.

Grantham went on to call “meme-investing,” or gambling on a stock simply because it’s funny, a “nihilistic parody of actual investing,” according to the interview.

“This is it guys, the biggest US fantasy trip of all time,” Grantham said.

Read more: Goldman Sachs says buy these 15 overlooked stocks that its analysts are confident will each jump at least 10% by the end of the year

Despite Grantham’s belief that the stock market is currently in a bubble, he did explain when and how he would return to the market and be a buyer of stocks.

“Getting back in is technically easy but psychologically difficult: start to average in as the market reaches more reasonable levels, say 18x earnings,” Grantham said.

The S&P 500’s trailing 12-month price-to-earnings ratio currently stands at about 30x, while the S&P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratio is around 22x, according to data from FactSet.

Until the US stock market hits those valuation levels, Grantham has his eye on emerging market stocks and value stocks, according to the interview.

And as to when the stock market bubble may finally pop, Grantham said it’s difficult to predict because government stimulus programs and the successful vaccine roll-out “should make the bubble longer-lived and bigger.”

Read the original article on Business Insider

Jeremy Grantham said US stocks are heroically overpriced, copper should shoot higher, and that he had an ‘overprivileged’ lockdown in a recent interview. Here are the 14 best quotes.

GettyImages 1193640564
Jeremy Grantham cofounded the asset management firm GMO.

Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham said US stocks are hugely overpriced, predicted copper prices should shoot higher in the coming years, and that he had an “overprivileged” lockdown in an interview at the Morningstar Investment Conference Australia this week.

The cofounder of asset management firm GMO also ripped into the major oil companies, saying they’re too cynical to engage with. And the 82-year-old said the SPAC boom and the Nasdaq had probably peaked.

Here are the 14 best quotes from the interview.

On the investing landscape

1. “The developed world is merely overpriced, no big deal on its own, but the US is heroically overpriced, and emerging markets is actually fairly cheap… I have complete confidence that if you bought the intersection, cheap emerging market stocks, that you would get a perfectly handsome 10- or 20-year return. And I am pretty darn confident that you will not get a handsome ten-year return from say the S&P 500 or Nasdaq.”

2. “[The] Nasdaq has, by the way, peaked quite a long time ago, two months ago…. This time, my guess is the super SPACs peaked in January, the Nasdaq peaked in February. And maybe in a few months, the termites will get to the rest of the market.”

3. “The super crazies are really anything to do with electrification. EVs, for sure, Tesla is the king of that group, [and] they’re down 30%. The SPAC index is down 30%, the last 10 SPACs having announced a deal are now [trading at] less than the $10 that they do these deals at.”

4. “There is no way copper will not rise hugely from here because of the electrification of everything. And that goes for cobalt, that goes for lithium. And all of the metals except iron and aluminum are really scarce… You have to be reconciled in the long run for a different world of commodity prices.”

On dangers for markets

5. “The higher an asset price is, the lower the return. So having high-priced assets is great for retirees, old folks like me selling off my assets. But for everybody else, it means you compound your wealth more slowly… So I welcome lower asset prices, which I’m confident will come.”

6. “It won’t take bad news. It won’t take a thoroughly bad economy to start bringing this market down. It will take a perfectly good economy and perfectly optimistic outlook, but a little less than it used to be a week ago, a month ago.” – Grantham also spoke of “pessimism termites” that would start to eat away at investor confidence.

7. “You look around and you find that real estate is suddenly pretty bubbly in almost every interesting market in the world… You can’t keep an asset class like housing, where the house doesn’t change, and you’re just marking it up in real terms year after year. Eventually, there’ll be a day of reckoning.”

8. “Don’t pull a Japan. Japan had the biggest bubble in history in land and real estate, bigger than the South Sea Bubble in my opinion. It also had the biggest equity bubble of any advanced country. [Now] 32 years later their land is not back to where it was in 1989 and their stock market is not back in nominal dollars to where it was in 1989. And that’s a perfect example, as the higher you go, the longer and greater the fall.”

On lockdown

9. “We had a totally overprivileged existence. We’re down in beautiful countryside with 50 acres of our own of woodland… And I did quite a lot more research than normal because I wasn’t wasting my time on airplanes. So my carbon footprint was magnificent, and I was reduced to worrying about rather small things like amortizing my tie supply. If I could wear three at a time, I would.”

On the oil companies

10. “The oil industry ran a deliberate campaign of obfuscation, political propaganda, to deliberately mislead the world… That should be criminal. It certainly has had a very damaging effect… It’s cost the world perhaps as much as 10 years of progress on climate change action and government support and sensible regulation.”

11. “I think engagement for the routine concerns [with companies over climate change] is the way to go… But with oil companies, I think they’re simply too cynical and too clever for engagement to count.”

On value investing and venture capital

12. “[Value investing] has had a brutal 11 years. It was the worst 10 years in history for value versus growth. And then last year was by far the worst single year. So you had the worst decade followed by the worst single year… We’ve had a lot of problems over the last 11 years.”

13. “American capitalism seems to me past its prime, a little fat and happy, not aggressive enough. There’s only half the number of people working for firms [that are] one and two years old than there were in 1975. So we’re losing some of our dynamism.”

14. “But there is one thing where the US is still exceptional and that is venture capital. And venture capital is really attracting the best people these days. They don’t go to Goldman Sachs to write algorithms. They go into venture capital or to start a new firm, and they should.”

Read the original article on Business Insider

Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham sees a housing bubble in almost every market – and says the Nasdaq and SPACs have likely peaked

GettyImages 1193640565
Jeremy Grantham is highly regarded in markets as a value investor.

  • Jeremy Grantham said housing was “bubbly” in almost every major market in the world.
  • He told a Morningstar conference the SPAC boom and the Nasdaq had likely peaked.
  • Grantham, who cofounded GMO, also said “pessimism termites” might soon get the rest of the market.
  • Sign up here our daily newsletter, 10 Things Before the Opening Bell.

Jeremy Grantham said on Wednesday that real-estate bubbles were popping up in almost every market around the world and that eventually there’d be a “day of reckoning.”

The legendary investor, who cofounded the asset-management firm GMO, also said the market for special-purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, had likely peaked, along with the tech-heavy Nasdaq stock index.

And he said “pessimism termites” may soon get to the rest of the market.

Speaking at the Morningstar Australia investment conference, Grantham compared the state of housing markets across developed economies to the 2008 financial crisis.

“This time you look around and you find the real estate is suddenly pretty bubbly in almost every interesting market in the world,” he said.

In the US, the Case-Shiller house-price gauge soared 13.2% year-over-year in March. In the UK, house prices shot up 10.9% year-over-year in April as a result of government stimulus and people looking for more space.

“You can’t keep an asset class like housing, where the house doesn’t change, and you’re just marking it up in real terms year after year,” Grantham said. “Eventually there’ll be a day of reckoning.”

Grantham, one of the most famous investors in cheap or “value” stocks, also said the SPAC market appeared to have been a bubble that has popped.

He said an index of SPACs – blank-check companies that go public before finding a target to merge with – was down sharply from its all-time high while many of the shell entities were trading below their initial price.

He said the Nasdaq had probably also peaked in February. On Wednesday, the tech-laden stock index was about 3% off its all-time high, reached in April.

Read more: Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham called the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis. He told us how 4 indicators have lined up for what could be ‘the biggest loss of perceived value from assets that we have ever seen.’

Grantham is a prominent bear, or someone who believes prices are about to fall. Many investors have come to discount his pronouncements given that stocks have consistently hit all-time highs over the past year.

Grantham continued his bearish theme at the Morningstar conference, saying that “pessimism termites” might “get to the rest of the market” in a few months. He said there were signs of craziness, particularly in the sky-high prices of electric-vehicle stocks such as Tesla.

“We’ve turned the pressure up and up, more money, more moral hazard, and here we are at the peak,” he said.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Billionaire investor Chris Sacca says he’s been invited to sit on SPAC boards and do nothing

Getty Images chris sacca donald trump shark tank
Chris Sacca.

  • Chris Sacca has been invited to sit on SPAC boards and do nothing.
  • The venture capitalist tweeted that many SPAC directors are “window dressing.”
  • Charlie Munger, Jeremy Grantham, and other top investors have criticized SPACs.
  • Visit the Business section of Insider for more stories.

Billionaire investor Chris Sacca tweeted on Tuesday that he’s been invited to sit on the boards of several special-purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) – with no expectation that he does any work.

“I’ve been offered a bunch of SPAC board seats,” the former “Shark Tank” star and Lowercase Capital founder said. “The pitch usually goes something like, ‘You’ll get [lots of shares] for just putting your name on it and doing nothing.'”

“While there are some board members actively helping, too many are just window dressing,” Sacca added. “Don’t get distracted.”

SPACs typically aim to secure a stock-market listing then acquire a private company, offering businesses an alternative way to go public than an initial public offering (IPO).

The number of SPACs has exploded in recent months as investors such as Bill Ackman and Chamath Palihapitiya, celebrities including Alex Rodriguez and Colin Kaepernick, and ex-politicians such as Paul Ryan and Gary Cohn have jumped on the trend.

Sacca – an early investor in Uber, Twitter, and Instagram – has shifted his focus towards tackling issues such as climate change and voter suppression in recent years. He isn’t the only high-profile investor to voice concerns about SPACs recently.

Warren Buffett’s business partner, Charlie Munger, dismissed them as “crazy speculation” and evidence of an “irritating bubble” in February.

Similarly, GMO cofounder Jeremy Grantham – who unintentionally made a fortune when one of his investments was acquired by a SPAC last year – slammed them as “a license to rip investors off” and suggested they should be banned.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham says the stock-market bubble could burst before May in a new interview. Here are the 16 best quotes.

jeremy grantham
Jeremy Grantham.

  • Jeremy Grantham said the stock-market bubble would likely deflate before May.
  • The GMO cofounder also criticized SPACs and cheered electric vehicles.
  • Here are Grantham’s 16 best quotes from his “Invest Like the Best” interview.
  • Visit the Business section of Insider for more stories.

Retail investors piling into stocks have fueled a historic bubble that will probably burst before May, the veteran investor Jeremy Grantham said on the “Invest Like the Best” podcast this week.

The GMO cofounder and chief investment strategist also discussed how the bubble would deflate, slammed SPACs, shared some of the insults he’d received for criticizing bitcoin, and predicted that electric vehicles would revolutionize the auto industry.

Here are Grantham’s 16 best quotes from the interview, lightly edited and condensed for clarity:

1. “This bubble is more impressive even than 2000, which was the champion. About 80% of the value measures have this one higher. We’ll be rather lucky to have this bubble last until May.”

2. “When the financial headlines migrate to the front page, when the evening news mentions the market or some crazy behavior of GameStop, Tesla, you know you’re getting very warm.” – outlining some of the signs of a bubble about to burst.

3. “This is not primarily an institutional bubble; this is an individual bubble. The individuals are absolutely crazy. They have expanded their share of the market trading, and they have really entered into the market with great enthusiasm for the first time in decades.”

4. “I have to confess that I find it all exhilarating. I’m only concerned somewhat for the relatively new investors who get drawn into these things and then find out the hard way. I sympathize completely with these people out there enjoying this bubble, but they’ve always ended very badly, and I have no doubt this one will too.”

5. “I’m not optimistic that anyone caught up in this wants to hear my advice and consequently would act on it. When you get into that excitement, mini frenzy, pretty hard to stop you with dry historical stories. ‘That was then, this is now, baby! Get aboard. You don’t understand. You dinosaurs don’t get it.’ Well, the trouble is we do get it, but there is no way I can persuade them. Just tread out the regular story, and one out of a hundred might listen. I will sympathize with them when they’re cleaned out.”

6. “We’re a crazy marketplace full of irrational human beings who behave themselves 80% of the time and then 20% of the time totally freak out one way or the other.”

Read more: The world’s top investment firms pay Rob Arnott for advice. He shares 2 investing ideas that could go down as ‘the trade of the 2020s’ as the world bounces back from COVID-19.

7. “They don’t want to look foolish with their neighbor, and I concede that seeing your neighbor get rich is about as irritating as anything that life has to offer.” – discussing how retail investors get caught up in speculation.

8. “The market tops out when the last bull has put his last money in. There is a moment of maximum enthusiasm, and the next day there’s plenty of enthusiasm but less than the previous day. So the buying pressure is released a little bit, like the famous water jets under the ping-pong balls. You turn the faucet down a little bit and the ball is still way up in the air, but it’s just dropped a couple of inches. It’s that process of slowly lowering the pressure, and the overpriced ping-pong ball slowly descends until it hits the proper level.”

9. “Rapidly rising hostility to bears is a very good, very late signal that the bubble is way advanced. I gave my fairly bland opinion about bitcoin, just that it was faith-based, there’s nothing new or shocking about that. But armies of individual fanatics descended on the comments. There was no insult that was not good enough for me, not just senility and old age and complete ignorance about bitcoin. I got three insults back about my big ears which I hadn’t had since I was 7 years old.”

10. “SPACs are terribly speculative, undesirable, unnecessary instruments. They’re really a license to rip investors off. It’s a testimonial to the sloppiness and slow-moving nature of the SEC that they haven’t banned these things long ago.”

11. “QuantumScape went from $10 to $130, where it was worth more than General Motors or Panasonic. That compares pretty well in scale with anything around in 1929 or 2000. To have a company that has no earnings or sales for four years, brilliant or not, and to look out that far into the future and make it worth more than General Motors, that’s a pretty good demonstration of something. And it was wonderfully ironic, because by then I’d already been sounding off about the undesirableness of SPACs. And there I am with far and away, for a second or two, my biggest investment ever.” – discussing his 53-fold gain on QuantumScape after a SPAC acquired the solid-state-battery company.

12. “I don’t believe the banks are nearly as important as they would love us to believe. They managed to fake the majority of people in ’09 into thinking they were so desperately important that if we didn’t bail them all out, if we let a single banker go out of business, we’d be deep in 1932, in the Great Depression.”

13. “The baby bust is going to be worse than anybody thinks, way off the scale of anything we’ve ever talked about. It’s going to change the world.” – emphasizing the effects of declining birth rates in many of the world’s largest economies.

14. “Electric cars will be cheaper to build. They’re already cheaper to run and cheaper to operate by far, and safer and better to drive. We have killed gasoline and diesel cars.”

15. “We’re compounding the wealth of society much more slowly. If you’re not in the game, just think how terrible it is: You pay twice as much for a house, the stock market is twice the price it used to be, the farm up the road if you’re in the countryside is twice the price it used to be. It’s glorious for the people who own a lot of assets, for old fogies who are selling their assets, that’s terrific. But everybody else, and particularly the young, it’s a pain in the ass.”

16. “For heaven’s sake, do the little that you can do to prepare for the future, which is to have a great infrastructure and a great educational system. Reality is the quality and quantity of your workforce. How motivated, how happy, how well-organized they are, how well-trained they are, and how well-retrained they are, if necessary, plus the quantity and quality of your assets per worker. That’s real life.”

Read the original article on Business Insider

Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham warns the stock-market bubble could burst before May in a new interview. Here are the 16 best quotes.

jeremy grantham
Jeremy Grantham.

  • Jeremy Grantham warned the stock-market bubble will likely deflate before May.
  • The GMO cofounder also criticized SPACs and cheered electric vehicles.
  • Here are Grantham’s 16 best quotes from his “Invest Like The Best” interview.
  • Visit the Business section of Insider for more stories.

Retail investors piling into stocks have fueled a historic bubble that will probably burst before May, veteran investor Jeremy Grantham warned on the “Invest Like The Best” podcast this week.

The GMO cofounder and chief investment strategist also discussed how the bubble will deflate, slammed SPACs, shared some of the insults he received for criticizing bitcoin, and predicted electric vehicles will revolutionize the auto industry.

Here are Grantham’s 16 best quotes from the interview, lightly edited and condensed for clarity:

1. “This bubble is more impressive even than 2000, which was the champion. About 80% of the value measures have this one higher. We’ll be rather lucky to have this bubble last until May.”

2. “When the financial headlines migrate to the front page, when the evening news mentions the market or some crazy behavior of GameStop, Tesla, you know you’re getting very warm.” – outlining some of the signs of a bubble about to burst.

3. “This is not primarily an institutional bubble, this is an individual bubble. The individuals are absolutely crazy. They have expanded their share of the market trading, and they have really entered into the market with great enthusiasm for the first time in decades.”

4. “I have to confess that I find it all exhilarating. I’m only concerned somewhat for the relatively new investors who get drawn into these things and then find out the hard way. I sympathize completely with these people out there enjoying this bubble, but they’ve always ended very badly and I have no doubt this one will too.”

5. “I’m not optimistic that anyone caught up in this wants to hear my advice, and consequently would act on it. When you get into that excitement, mini frenzy, pretty hard to stop you with dry historical stories. ‘That was then, this is now baby! Get aboard, you don’t understand. You dinosaurs don’t get it.’ Well, the trouble is, we do get it, but there is no way I can persuade them. Just tread out the regular story, and one out of a hundred might listen. I will sympathize with them when they’re cleaned out.”

6. “We’re a crazy marketplace full of irrational human beings who behave themselves 80% of the time, and then 20% of the time, totally freak out one way or the other.”

7. “They don’t want to look foolish with their neighbor, and I concede that seeing your neighbor get rich is about as irritating as anything that life has to offer.” – discussing how retail investors get caught up in speculation.

8. “The market tops out when the last bull has put his last money in. There is a moment of maximum enthusiasm, and the next day there’s plenty of enthusiasm but less than the previous day. So the buying pressure is released a little bit, like the famous water jets under the ping-pong balls. You turn the faucet down a little bit and the ball is still way up in the air, but it’s just dropped a couple of inches. It’s that process of slowly lowering the pressure and the overpriced ping-pong ball slowly descends until it hits the proper level.”

9. “Rapidly rising hostility to bears is a very good, very late signal that the bubble is way advanced. I gave my fairly bland opinion about bitcoin, just that it was faith-based, there’s nothing new or shocking about that. But armies of individual fanatics descended on the comments. There was no insult that was not good enough for me, not just senility and old age and complete ignorance about bitcoin. I got three insults back about my big ears which I hadn’t had since I was 7-years-old.”

10. “SPACs are terribly speculative, undesirable, unnecessary instruments. They’re really a license to rip investors off. It’s a testimonial to the sloppiness and slow-moving nature of the SEC that they haven’t banned these things long ago.”

11. “QuantumScape went from $10 to $130, where it was worth more than General Motors or Panasonic. That compares pretty well in scale with anything around in 1929 or 2000. To have a company that has no earnings, or sales, for four years, brilliant or not, and to look out that far into the future and make it worth more than General Motors, that’s a pretty good demonstration of something. And it was wonderfully ironic, because by then I’d already been sounding off about the undesirableness of SPACs. And there I am, with far and away, for a second or two, my biggest investment ever.” – discussing his 53-fold gain on QuantumScape after a SPAC acquired the solid-state battery company.

12. “I don’t believe the banks are nearly as important as they would love us to believe. They managed to fake the majority of people in ’09 into thinking they were so desperately important that if we didn’t bail them all out, if we let a single banker go out of business, we’d be deep in 1932, in the Great Depression.”

13. “The baby bust is going to be worse than anybody thinks, way off the scale of anything we’ve ever talked about. It’s going to change the world.” – emphasizing the impacts of declining birth rates in many of the world’s largest economies.

14. “Electric cars will be cheaper to build. They’re already cheaper to run and cheaper to operate by far, and safer and better to drive. We have killed gasoline and diesel cars.”

15. “We’re compounding the wealth of society much more slowly. If you’re not in the game, just think how terrible it is: You pay twice as much for a house, the stock market is twice the price it used to be, the farm up the road if you’re in the countryside is twice the price it used to be. It’s glorious for the people who own a lot of assets, for old fogies who are selling their assets, that’s terrific. But everybody else, and particularly the young, it’s a pain in the ass.”

16. “For heaven’s sake, do the little that you can do to prepare for the future, which is to have a great infrastructure and a great educational system. Reality is the quality and quantity of your workforce. How motivated, how happy, how well-organized they are, how well-trained they are, and how well-retrained they are if necessary, plus the quantity and quality of your assets per worker. That’s real life.”

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Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham says Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan will make the stock market bubble even worse

Jeremy Grantham

Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham warned investors during a Bloomberg interview that the $1.9 trillion in federal aid President Joe Biden is seeking from Congress will further inflate the stock market bubble.

The GMO co-founder told Erik Schatzker that he has “no doubt” some of the stimulus aid will end up in the market. He said the “sad truth” about the last stimulus bill passed in 2020 was that it didn’t increase capital spending and didn’t increase real production, but it certainly flowed into stocks. 

The plan that Biden is proposing contains a $1,400 boost to stimulus checks, robust state and local aid, and vaccine-distribution funds. Grantham said that if the package passed is worth $1.9 trillion, it could lead to the dangerous end of the bubble.  

“If it’s as big as they talk about, this would be a very good making of a top for the market, just of the kind that the history books would enjoy,” said Grantham.

“We will have a few weeks of extra money and a few weeks of putting your last, desperate chips into the game, and then an even more spectacular bust,” he added. 

Read more: A notorious market bear who called the dot-com bubble says he sees ‘fresh deterioration’ in the market indicator that first signaled the 1929 and 1987 crashes – and warns that stocks are ripe for a 70% drop

Grantham has long-warned of the ballooning bubble he sees in the US stock market. In his investor outlook letter in the beginning of January, he detailed how extreme overvaluations, explosive price increases, frenzied issuance, and “hysterically speculative investor behavior” all demonstrate that the stock market is in a bubble that not even the Fed can stop from bursting.

“When you have reached this level of obvious super-enthusiasm, the bubble has always, without exception, broken in the next few months, not a few years,” Grantham told Bloomberg.

Grantham also said that the combination of fiscal stimulus and emergency Fed programs that helped inflate the bubble could increase inflation.

“If you think you live in a world where output doesn’t matter and you can just create paper, sooner or later you’re going to do the impossible, and that is bring back inflation,” Grantham said. “Interest rates are paper. Credit is paper. Real life is factories and workers and output, and we are not looking at increased output.”

He told investors to seek out stocks outside of US markets, as many other countries haven’t seen the huge bull market the US has. He called emerging markets stocks “handsomely priced.”

“You will not make a handsome 10- or 20-year return from U.S. growth stocks,” said Grantham. “If you could do emerging, low-growth and green, you might get the jackpot.”

Read more: GOLDMAN SACHS: These 22 stocks still haven’t recovered to pre-pandemic levels – and are set to explode amid higher earnings in 2021 as the economy recovers

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Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham made an accidental $265 million profit on a SPAC deal after previously criticizing blank-check companies

Jeremy Grantham
  • Jeremy Grantham’s early stake in battery producer QuantumScape has surged following the firm’s merger with a special-purpose acquisition company, but Grantham still isn’t sold on the blank-check IPO trend.
  • Grantham invested $12.5 million into the company seven years ago. That stake now stands at roughly $278 million thanks to a SPAC merger and QuantumScape’s subsequent stock rally.
  • The position is “by accident the single biggest investment I have ever made,” Grantham told the Financial Times.
  • Still, the investor sees SPACs as a “reprehensible instrument, and very very speculative by definition,” largely due to their lack of listing requirements and overall regulation.
  • Visit the Business Insider homepage for more stories.

The very kind of dealmaking that Jeremy Grantham previously deemed “reprehensible” netted the famous investor a $265 million profit.

Grantham, who founded investment management firm GMO and serves as its long-term investment strategist, invested $12.5 million in battery producer QuantumScape seven years ago as one of several stakes in early green-tech companies, according to the Financial Times. The position swelled after Kensington Capital Partners announced plans to merge QuantumScape with a special-purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, in September.

The deal valued QuantumScape at $3.3 billion, and shares traded at more than four times their listing price when the acquisition was completed on November 30. The company’s stock rallied another 31% on Tuesday alone, valuing Grantham’s stake at roughly $278 million.

Yet the legendary investor isn’t convinced Wall Street’s SPAC frenzy will last. The QuantumScape position is “by accident the single biggest investment I have ever made,” Grantham told the FT, partially fueled by the so-called blank-check companies’ lack of regulation.

“It gets around the idea of listing requirements, so it is not a useful tool for a lot of successful companies. But I think it is a reprehensible instrument, and very very speculative by definition,” he added.

Read more: We spoke with Wall Street’s 9 best-performing fund managers of 2020 to learn how they crushed the chaotic market – and compile the biggest bets they’re making for 2021

Grantham’s profit stands to climb even higher. QuantumScape soared as much as 37% in early Wednesday trading. Should the rally hold into the market close, it would add another $100 million to his total gains. 

SPAC firms raise capital through an initial public offering with the intention of using the cash to acquire a firm and take the merged entity public. The last two years have seen market favorites including Virgin Galactic, DraftKings, and Nikola go public through such deals.

Blank-check IPOs exploded in 2020 as firms looked to take advantage of a surge in participation from retail investors and hopes for an economic recovery. More than $74 billion has been raised across 218 SPAC debuts in 2020, according to data from SPACInsider.com. That compares to just $13.6 billion raised across 59 deals in 2019.

Wall Street’s obsession with the vehicles could be a sign of unsustainable market optimism, Grantham told the FT, rivaling the overwhelming bullishness seen during the 1920s and the late-1990s tech bubble.

Tesla’s meteoric rise through the year has made electric-vehicle SPACs – and any SPAC related to the EV market – particularly popular. QuantumScape lands in that basket. The firm produces solid-state batteries used in electric cars and has backing from industry giant Volkswagen.

Now read more markets coverage from Markets Insider and Business Insider:

DoorDash prices IPO at $102 per share, will raise $3.4 billion

Stocks could stumble in early 2021 as investor sentiment surges past market fundamentals, Goldman Sachs says

Emmet Peppers grew his accounts from $30,000 in 2010 to over $70 million this year. The newly minted hedge fund manager breaks down how he spotted early opportunities in Tesla, Facebook, and the COVID-19 market crash, – and shared one IPO on his radar.

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