Wall Street is bummed the Delta wave has you spending less

Wall Street NY summer
People walk past the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Wall Street on July 15, 2021 in New York City.

  • Goldman Sachs and Bank of America both cut GDP forecasts. The reason: not enough spending.
  • Americans’ spending slid more than expected in July, starving the recovery of its biggest booster.
  • Still, both banks see growth rebounding as the Delta wave weakens and Americans get back to shopping.
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Wall Street is tempering its hopes for the US recovery. A handful of big banks say it’s the American people who spoiled the party.

With the Delta wave on the rise, causing a dip in consumer spending and confidence, Goldman Sachs slashed its forecast for third-quarter gross domestic product growth to 5.5% from 9% on Wednesday. Bank of America followed on Friday, cutting its GDP estimate to 4.5% growth from 7% and officially implying the recovery peaked in the second quarter.

Bank economists aren’t the only ones on Wall Street growing more pessimistic toward the recovery. Only 27% of fund managers expect growth to improve over the next 12 months, according to a survey conducted by BofA earlier in August. That’s the smallest share since April 2020, when lockdowns just started to freeze the US economy. That print also came before retail sales data showed spending slow more than expected in July.

That spending slowdown sits in the center of Wall Street’s gloomier outlook. The surge in Delta cases prompted a resumption of mask-wearing rules across the country and revived fears of catching the coronavirus. Those trends quickly dragged on Americans’ spending. Retail sales slid 1.1% in July, with the largest declines showing up at clothing stores, bookstores, and car dealerships.

Consumer spending counts for roughly 70% of economic activity, making retail sales one of the most relevant measures of the US recovery. Put simply, Americans stopped spending as much in July, and the recovery is likely going to be worse off for it.

The retail sales report shows a “sharp pullback in demand” and starts the quarter off “on a bad note,” BofA economists led by Michelle Meyer said in a note. Even if spending bounces back in August and September, the bleak July print points to “relatively muted” growth in the third quarter, they added.

The data showed a “larger slowdown in spending than we expected,” particularly in service sectors that have yet to stage full recoveries, Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius said. If case counts continue to rise and restrictions intensify, the recovery could stumble further.

Still, both teams are holding out hope that spending can bounce back before 2022. The slump shouldn’t last long, as the duration of Delta outbreaks in Europe suggest case counts in the US could start to fall in September, the Goldman economists said. The bank raised its fourth-quarter GDP forecast to 6.5% from 5.5% on Wednesday as well, noting the expected drop in cases should power a buying spree similar to that seen through spring.

BofA maintained its fourth-quarter estimate of 6%. The Delta wave will bring “some permanent growth destruction,” but most growth will simply be delayed further into the future, the team said.

“Once the Delta threat is reduced and this COVID wave subsides, we should see the return of pent-up spending for leisure services,” the economists added. “Some categories will have a bigger bounce than others – perhaps travel more than restaurants/bars, for example – but we should see people reengage in these activities.”

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Global growth will hit a 5-decade high in 2021 on vaccine-powered rebound, OECD says in upgraded forecast

Japan shopping street coronavirus
  • The OECD lifted its 2021 global GDP estimate to 5.8% from 4.2%, forecasting the fastest growth since 1973.
  • Group of 20 countries will see even stronger growth and emerging countries will lag, the organization said.
  • Central banks need to look through temporary inflation and keep policy support in place, the OECD added.
  • See more stories on Insider’s business page.

Economic recoveries are improving around the world, but the global rebound remains massively uneven, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said in a new report.

The OECD revised its estimate for global gross domestic product higher on Monday, citing unprecedented policy support and the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines. Output is now expected to grow 5.8% in 2021, up from the December 2020 forecast of a 4.2% expansion. That rate would mark the strongest year of economic growth since 1973 and follow last year’s 3.5% contraction, the OECD said.

Global GDP will then grow 4.4% in 2022, according to the report. Global income will still sit roughly $3 trillion below its pre-crisis trend by the end of next year as emerging countries struggle to keep up.

“The global economy remains below its pre-pandemic growth path and in too many OECD countries living standards by the end of 2022 will not be back to the level expected before the pandemic,” Laurence Boone, chief economist at OECD, said.

Living conditions aren’t the only disparity expected to widen through the recovery. Real GDP is expected to grow 6.3% and 4.7% among G20 nations in 2021 and 2022, respectively. That outpaces the average growth estimate.

Meanwhile, some emerging-market economies are expected to post substandard growth in the near term. Countries still enduring deadly waves of COVID-19 such as India and Brazil “may continue to have large shortfalls in GDP relative to pre-pandemic expectations” and only bounce back once the virus threat fades, the organization said.

Improving vaccine distribution is key to supporting such countries, especially as virus uncertainties linger. New variants of COVID-19 could necessitate a return to partial lockdowns if populations aren’t vaccinated quickly enough, the organization warned. Such a resurgence could also drag consumer confidence lower and halt any rebound in spending.

Upside risks have emerged as well. Household saving boomed through the pandemic, and that cash could soon be unleashed as people unwind pent-up demand. Spending just a fraction of the bolstered savings “would raise GDP growth significantly,” the OECD said.

But with spending comes inflation. Supply-chain disruptions and bottlenecks around the world have driven material prices higher in recent months. When coupled with a sharp bounce in demand and various stages of reopening, price growth now sits at its highest levels in more than a decade. The OECD expects inflation to average 2.7% in 2021 before cooling to 2.4% next year.

Central banks should allow for a brief inflation overshoot as production normalizes and temporary pressures ease, Boone wrote. Running economies hot can allow for stronger hiring and wage growth, particularly among low-income groups. Central banks must “remain vigilant” and look through temporary inflation, the economist said.

“What is of most concern, in our view, is the risk that financial markets fail to look through temporary price increases and relative price adjustments, pushing market interest rates and volatility higher,” Boone added.

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US GDP will exceed its pre-pandemic peak by the end of June, Atlanta Fed model says

restaurants
  • The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate sees economic growth reaching 10.4% in the second quarter.
  • Such an expansion would place US GDP above its pre-pandemic record and mark a full recovery.
  • First-quarter growth reached 6.4% as stimulus and vaccination allowed the economy to reopen.
  • See more stories on Insider’s business page.

By at least one popular measure, the US economy will fully recover and exceed its pre-pandemic strength in the second quarter.

US gross domestic product is expected to grow at an annualized rate of 10.4% through the quarter that ends in June, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model. Growth at that pace would place economic output at a new record high, surpassing the peak seen during the fourth quarter of 2019. It would also be the second-strongest rate of growth since 1978, exceeded only by the record-breaking expansion seen through the third quarter of 2020.

The central bank’s nowcast is a type of projection that is updated as new economic data is published. GDPNow isn’t an official forecast from the Atlanta Fed, and is instead used to narrow down where quarterly growth is likely to land. The model also ignores the pandemic’s impact beyond its influence on source data such as retail sales and global trade, according to the Fed.

The first GDPNow reading for the second quarter was published on Friday, just one day after the Commerce Department published its initial estimate of first-quarter growth. US GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 6.4% in the first three months of the year, missing the median estimate of 6.7% but still showing a sharp acceleration from the prior period. The jump was primarily fueled by widespread vaccination, gradual reopening, and stimulus passed by former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden.

To be sure, the last quarter’s expansion came in softer than the Atlanta Fed’s final first-quarter estimate of 7.9%.

Though some individual indicators have already surpassed their pre-pandemic levels and signal a strong recovery, GDP remains just below its previous peak. Following the first-quarter reading, GDP has retraced about 96% of its pandemic-era decline. With data tracking consumer spending and hiring trending higher as the economy reopens further, the US is largely expected to complete its GDP recovery in the next two months.

Economists outside the Fed also see growth accelerating through the current quarter. The consensus estimate from a survey of forecasters calls for annualized growth of just under 9% in the second quarter. The most bullish estimates see GDP expanding at a rate of more than 11%, while the least optimistic expect growth to land at about 6%.

The estimates underscore the fact that, should vaccination continue and case counts decline further, the US is on track for its strongest rate of annual growth in decades. The International Monetary Fund estimates GDP will grow 6.4% through all of 2021, exceeding global growth of about 6% and marking the fastest rate of expansion since the early 1980s. Separately, Federal Reserve officials hold a median estimate of 6.5% growth this year.

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The IMF lifts its global growth forecast with vaccination and stimulus likely to be a shot in the arm

Kristalina Georgieva
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks at a press conference in Washington D.C., the United States, on March 4, 2020.

  • The IMF will lift its forecast for global economic growth in a report set for release next week.
  • Vaccination and new US stimulus were grounds for the upgrade, the IMF’s managing director said.
  • Still, developing economies are recovering far slower than advanced countries, she added.
  • See more stories on Insider’s business page.

The International Monetary Fund will lift its projections for global economic growth in the wake of encouraging vaccination trends and major new stimulus in the US, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said Tuesday.

The IMF will roll out an upgraded set of forecasts for this year and for 2022 next week when it publishes its World Economic Outlook report, she said. The organization’s January estimates saw global output growing 5.5% in 2021 after a forecasted tumble of 3.5% the previous year. The months since have seen COVID-19 cases fall from their peaks, vaccine rollouts begin, and $1.9 trillion in new fiscal support from the Biden administration.

The developments all stand to boost global economic recoveries through the summer, Georgieva said in prepared remarks.

“This allows for an upward revision to our global forecast for this year and for 2022,” she said.

Without “extraordinary effort” from essential workers and scientists, the global recession seen through most of 2020 would have been “at least three times worse,” the managing director added.

The news isn’t all good. Georgieva highlighted that, despite the broadly improved outlook, the global recovery remains uneven and gaps between countries could widen in the coming months. The US and China are likely to reach pre-pandemic levels of gross domestic product by the end of the year, but “they are the exception, not the rule,” she said.

New virus strains in Europe and Latin America are fueling high uncertainty about the region’s prospects. Emerging and developing countries also endured a 20% drop in per-capita income, roughly twice that seen in advanced economies. The plunge leaves emerging countries with a much harder climb back to pre-crisis health.

“They already have more limited fiscal firepower to fight the crisis. And many are highly exposed to hard-hit sectors, such as tourism,” Georgieva said

One upgrade among many

The IMF joins a handful of other institutions turning more bullish toward the US and global rebounds. Fitch lifted its own forecast for global expansion on March 18 to 6.1% from 5.3%, similarly citing stimulus and progress toward reopening. The estimate implies the strongest year of global growth since at least 1980.

US growth will outperform slightly at 6.2%, Fitch said. That’s up from the previous estimate of 4.5%.

“It still looks reasonable to assume that the health crisis will ease by midyear, allowing social contact to start to recover. But immunization delays or problems remain the key risk,” the firm said.

Wall Street giants have also boosted their estimates in recent weeks. Morgan Stanley is among the most bullish, lifting its US growth estimate to 8.1% in 2021 from 7.6% in an early March note. The forecast also calls for US GDP to reach pre-pandemic levels by the end of the first quarter.

Bank of America raised its 2021 US growth estimate to 7% from 6.5% on Thursday, marking its fourth upgrade this year alone. The revision was entirely linked to Democrats’ new stimulus measure and the “exceptional consumer spending” seen among those receiving relief checks, the team led by Michelle Meyer wrote.

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US economic growth will hit 7% this year on major stimulus boost, BofA says in latest upgrade

People Shopping covid NYC
People shopping at the Union Square Greenmarket as New York City continues reopening efforts on December 4, 2020.

  • BofA lifted its 2021 US GDP forecast to 7% from 6.5%, the latest in several upgrades by the bank.
  • The firm sees strong spending already and unemployment falling to 4.5% later this year.
  • The White House’s plan for up to $3 trillion in new spending can further lift growth, the bank said.
  • See more stories on Insider’s business page.

The American reopening is already leading to stronger growth than banks expected. Just ask Bank of America.

On Thursday, BofA economists lifted their 2021 US growth forecast once again on hopes for past and future stimulus accelerating the economic recovery. The upgrade is at least the fourth the bank has made this year.

The team led by Michelle Meyer now expects gross domestic product to grow 7% this year, up from the previous estimate of 6.5%. Output will then reach 5.5% the following year, also an upgrade.

Growth on a fourth-quarter-by-fourth-quarter basis will total 7.7% in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022, the team added. That exceeds the Federal Reserve’s median estimates of 6.2% and 3.4% growth in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

The upward revision is entirely linked to stimulus. The $1.9 trillion measure passed by Democrats earlier this month is already fueling “exceptional consumer spending” according to credit- and debit-card spending data tracked by the bank. Distribution of $1,400 direct payments contributed to a 40% month-over-month spending leap among recipients. The boost might only just be getting started, the economists said in a note to clients.

Total card spending was up a whopping 45% from a year ago and 23% from two years ago for the seven days ending March 20, per BofA data.

“We think consumer spending is about to take off given the one-two punch of stimulus and reopening,” they added.

Hopes for a follow-up spending package added to the bank’s rosier forecast. The White House is organizing a proposal for up to $3 trillion in spending on infrastructure, climate, and education projects to further aid the country’s rebound. Such a plan would drive a more moderate boost to growth over a longer period of time, the bank said.

Tax hikes used to pay for a follow-up spending package could offset some gains, the team added.

Stronger 2021 growth should open the door for a swifter labor market recovery, according to the bank. The team expects a series of encouraging jobs reports starting with the March release scheduled for April 2. Payroll growth is projected to average 950,000 per month in the second quarter and pull the unemployment rate to 4.7% from 6.1%.

The rate will fall more modestly through the rest of the year to 4.5%, the team said. That matches the Fed’s own year-end estimate.

Bank of America’s bullish update follows similarly optimistic forecasts from Wall Street peers. Recent weeks have seen Morgan Stanley, UBS, and Goldman Sachs all lift their own estimates for 2021 GDP growth.

Morgan Stanley remains the most bullish of the bunch, estimating the economy will expand 8.1% this year and return to pre-pandemic output levels by the end of the first quarter. All three banks, along with Bank of America, hold decidedly more hopeful outlooks than the Fed due to expectations for another large-scale spending measure.

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Biden’s stimulus will lift US growth to 8% this year, Goldman Sachs says – without factoring in another $2 trillion spending package

Biden signs American Rescue Plan
US President Joe Biden signs the American Rescue Plan on March 11, 2021, in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC.

  • Goldman Sachs lifted its 2021 US growth forecast to 8% from 7.7%, citing new stimulus for the boost.
  • The bank also expects Biden and Democrats to pass at least $2 trillion in infrastructure spending.
  • That sum could hit $4 trillion if the deal includes education, child-care, and health-care spending.
  • See more stories on Insider’s business page.

Goldman Sachs joined its Wall Street peers in revising its US economic outlook on Saturday, pegging an increasingly bullish forecast to Democrats’ latest stimulus package.

The team led by Jan Hatzius now expects US gross domestic product to grow 8% in 2021 on a fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter basis, according to a note published Saturday. That’s up from the previous estimate of 7.7%. The bank’s full-year growth estimate climbed to 7% from 6.9%.

The current-year projection largely hinges on President Joe Biden’s stimulus plan, as Goldman had initially expected a $1.5 trillion deal to reach Biden’s desk. The $1.9 trillion plan signed by the president on Thursday will accelerate the nation’s economic recovery through the middle of 2021 before tapering off into 2022, the bank’s economists said. Stimulus checks’ rollout over the coming months will concentrate the plan’s positive impact in the second quarter, they added.

Democrats’ stimulus package is probably the last major pandemic-era relief deal, but key tenets of the plan are set to be renewed as the economy climbs out of its virus-induced hole. The bill’s expansion of the child tax credit will probably be extended or made permanent by Democrats, according to Goldman.

The $300 supplement to federal unemployment benefits will expire as planned in September, but expanded eligibility and benefit duration policies included in Biden’s package could be prolonged, the team said.

Next stop: Infrastructure

Biden has said he aims to pass a massive infrastructure measure to further juice the US recovery. Such a plan will come with a price tag of at least $2 trillion, though details are scarce for now, Goldman said.Inclusion of funding for child care, health care, or education could push the sum to $4 trillion, though tax hikes would probably be needed to fund such a package, the bank added.

Biden campaigned on a $2 trillion package, though some Democratic senators indicate they favor even larger spending. Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, an influential moderate member of the caucus, has said he could support up to $4 trillion, while Sen. Dick Durbin of Illinois, a member of party leadership, has said he could support $3 trillion.

Infrastructure spending would have a less pronounced impact on growth, but Goldman still sees the package driving a stronger expansion through 2022. The economy will expand 2.9% next year on a Q4-Q4 basis, up from the bank’s prior forecast of 2.4%.

House Democrats began planning their infrastructure push on Friday. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she hopes to hold bipartisan talks on improvements to broadband, energy, and education, among other sectors. Yet after passing the stimulus bill without a single Republican vote, garnering support across the aisle could be difficult.

Goldman’s update follows similarly optimistic changes elsewhere on Wall Street. Morgan Stanley lifted its forecast on Tuesday to 8.1% on a Q4-Q4 basis. US GDP will fully rebound to pre-pandemic highs by the end of the first quarter and trend higher in the coming months as the economy fully reopens, the team led by Ellen Zentner said.

Separately, UBS projected growth would reach 7.9% from Q4 2002 to Q4 2021 as stimulus, falling COVID-19 case counts, and continued vaccination opened the door for a strong recovery. The bank, like Goldman, had expected Republicans to water down the size of the latest relief package. Passage of the full bill can help consumer spending lift the ailing services industry into 2022, economists led by Seth Carpenter said in a note to clients.

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The US economy will grow 7.9% in 2021 as stimulus juices consumer spending, UBS says

US Capitol
The US Capitol building exterior is seen at sunset on March 8, 2021 in Washington, DC.

  • UBS economists lifted their 2021 Q4-Q4 growth estimate to 7.9%, citing Biden’s huge stimulus plan.
  • Another relief package will extend strong growth through 2022, the team added.
  • Inflation will surge through reopening but quickly calm as the economy normalizes, the bank said.
  • Visit the Business section of Insider for more stories.

Another massive tranche of fiscal stimulus is on the brink of passage, and UBS sees the measure fueling strong growth well into next year.

Economists led by Seth Carpenter expect US gross domestic product to grow 7.9% from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021. Growth on a calendar-year basis will total 6.6%, a larger-than-usual difference due to depressed first-quarter gains.

The economy will continue to expand at a robust pace in 2022 as a new fiscal support measure further boosts the recovery, the team projected.

The bank’s previous baseline scenario assumed Republican opposition would force President Joe Biden to shrink his $1.9 trillion stimulus plan, but that hasn’t taken place. With House Democrats poised to approve the measure in a final vote on Wednesday, the bill is set to lift the last pockets of the economy still struggling through lockdowns.

“The manufacturing sector is robust. The housing sector is surging. The part of the economy that is lagging is consumer spending on services,” the team said in a Tuesday note. Their updated forecast sees spending more evenly spread between goods and services.

Nearly all signs point to a healthy recovery in the coming months. The average rate of vaccination has stabilized above 2 million shots per day, according to Bloomberg data. At the same time, daily case counts are down significantly from their January peak and hospitalizations have similarly plummeted.

The pace of the rebound has raised questions as to whether Biden’s massive relief plan is necessary. Where Democrats claim the hole in the economy is large enough to warrant nearly $2 trillion in fresh aid, critics argue the proposal will overheat the economy and send inflation soaring.

UBS sees little risk of a lengthy inflation overshoot. April and May will likely see price growth sharply accelerate, but that rally will quickly give way to moderately higher inflation in line with the Federal Reserve’s target. The roughly 10 million jobs still lost to the pandemic are proof that there’s room for stronger-than-usual inflation, the bank said.

“We see sustained growth, well in excess of the long-run sustainable pace, but we also see a substantial amount of labor market slack,” the team added.

The outlook matches that outlined in recent weeks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The central bank expects reopening to lift prices at a fairly quick rate, but the decades-long trend of relatively weak inflation won’t “change on a dime,” Powell said in a late-February House hearing.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will only trend at its 2% target by the end of 2023, UBS said. Rate hikes likely won’t arrive until 2024, though tapering of the central bank’s asset purchases could arrive as soon as October if the recovery surprises to the upside, the economists added.

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US GDP will return to pre-pandemic highs by the end of March, Morgan Stanley says

Mall coronavirus retail
  • The US economy will grow 8.1% in 2021 as the coronavirus threat fades for good, Morgan Stanley said.
  • GDP will return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of the first quarter, the bank’s economists added.
  • Unemployment will fall to 4.9% in 2021, the bank said, still above the rate from before the crisis.
  • Visit the Business section of Insider for more stories.

Morgan Stanley has lifted its forecasts for 2021 economic growth in the US, citing a collection of encouraging trends for its brighter outlook.

Gross domestic product is now expected to grow by 8.1% on a fourth-quarter by fourth-quarter basis, up from 7.6%, the team led by Ellen Zentner said in a Tuesday note. Growth for 2022 was revised 0.1 points lower to 2.8%.

The bank also expects US GDP to fully rebound to its pre-pandemic level by the end of the current quarter. The output gap – a measure of how actual growth compares to maximum potential growth estimates – is expected to turn positive and reach 2.7% by the end of the year as the economy roars out of its virus-induced downturn. That would be the highest reading since the 1970s, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Economic reopening, a faster rate of vaccination, and stronger job growth all contributed to the adjustments, the economists said. New stimulus likely to win final approval in the House on Wednesday is in line with what the bank expected, but its earlier timing and the pace of first-quarter growth also added to optimism, the team added.

Morgan Stanley sees the unemployment rate tumbling further, though taking longer to reach lows seen before the pandemic. The gauge is projected to average 4.9% by the fourth quarter of 2021, down from the previous 5.1% estimate. Unemployment will sink further to 3.9% over the following year, the team said.

“A more robust return to work will be somewhat offset by rising labor force participation, but economic activity is strong enough to still generate a sharp decline in the unemployment rate,” the bank added.

The faster recovery will come at a cost, and Morgan Stanley’s latest inflation projections signal price growth will firm up later this year. Higher prices for rent, healthcare, and staples will lift inflation to 2.6% in April and May before it eases to 2.3% at the end of the year, according to the economists. Inflation will hold at the elevated level well into 2022, meeting the Federal Reserve’s above-2% target.

Still, significant tightening of monetary conditions isn’t likely to take place until 2023, the bank said. Policymakers will likely reiterate their dovish guidance when they meet next week and project near-zero rates staying at least through 2022. Yet the recovery and related effects on inflation and hiring will lead the Fed to begin shrinking its asset purchases in January 2022, Morgan Stanley said.

“By the middle of the year we expect the cloud of COVID will have thinned and the recovery will have picked up meaningfully enough that the Fed will see it as appropriate to begin taking its foot off the gas pedal,” they added.

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Bank of America lifts its forecast for US economic growth on hopes for sweeping Biden-backed stimulus

Joe Biden
President-elect Joe Biden speaks about the US economy following a briefing with economic advisors in Wilmington, Delaware, on November 16, 2020.

  • Bank of America lifted its forecasts for US full-year and first-quarter economic growth, citing hopes for new stimulus under the Biden administration and strong consumer spending trends.
  • The bank’s economists lifted their first-quarter GDP forecast to 4% growth from 1% and boosted their 2021 estimate to 5% from 4.6% expansion.
  • Early indicators suggest the $900 billion relief package signed by President Trump last month is already lifting spending activity, the team said in a note to clients.
  • The $1.9 trillion relief plan revealed by Biden on Thursday can further accelerate a return to pre-pandemic economic strength, they added.
  • Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.

Robust consumer spending and the likelihood of additional stimulus led Bank of America to boost its outlook for US economic growth on Friday.

Economists led by Michelle Meyer expect US gross domestic product to grow 5% through 2021, up from the previous estimate of 4.6%. The bank’s first-quarter GDP forecast was also revised higher, to 4% from 1%.

Early indicators suggest the $900 billion relief package passed by President Trump late last month is already lifting economic activity from its nearly frozen state, the economists said. Debit- and credit-card spending is up nearly 10% from the year-ago period as of January 9, compared to being up just 2% before new stimulus was rolled out.

Additional stimulus from a Biden administration adds to the bank’s bullish forecast. The President-elect revealed a $1.9 trillion relief plan on Thursday, pitching $1,400 direct payments, state and local government aid, and a $15 minimum wage as critical to reviving the virus-slammed economy.

Democrats’ new, albeit slim, majority in the Senate signals a version of the plan will reach Biden’s desk. That extra support stands to provide a major backstop for the economy through the new year, Bank of America said.

Read more: ‘I don’t believe that we’ve really left the recession yet’: Bond king Jeff Gundlach lays out the 2 risks that investors should watch nearly a year into the pandemic – and shares the 4 components of a balanced, winning portfolio

“There are risks in both directions, but we see them skewed to the upside,” the team said in a note to clients. “There is now a ‘fiscal put’ akin to the ‘Fed put.'”

Fresh fiscal relief also takes some pressure off of the Federal Reserve in the near-term, the economists added. Should new stimulus fuel stronger growth and inflation, the Fed could rein in its easy monetary policy stance sooner than initially expected. 

The Biden-backed stimulus also provides the fiscal support Fed policymakers clamored for throughout 2020. If the economy weakens further, the government can coordinate a fiscal- and monetary-policy response akin to that seen at the start of the pandemic, the team said.

Still, elevated COVID-19 cases and strict economic restrictions will delay a full recovery, they added. Bank of America expects GDP will return to pre-pandemic levels in the third quarter.

While front-loaded stimulus boosted the firm’s first-quarter forecast, the early passage of a relief deal cut its second-quarter growth estimate to 5% from 7%.

Read more: Global X’s lithium and battery ETF returned 126% in 2020 as electric vehicle-driven demand surged. One of the firm’s analysts shared 4 stocks he sees ‘leading the rise’ in the industry going forward.

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