- Global shares remained near record highs despite COVID-19 cases continuing to rise.
- US inflation, Chinese quarterly economic data and Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony to Congress are in focus.
- Growth in Japan’s machinery sector boosted Asian stocks as it indicated sustained economic recovery.
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Global shares were mixed on Monday, with economically sensitive sectors such as energy and banking under pressure, while more defensive parts of the market such as healthcare rose, as as COVID-19 cases linked to the delta variant continued to rise and bring renewed lockdowns.
Key data on US consumer inflation and regional manufacturing activity along with Chinese economic growth could provide a steer on how much the resurgence of COVID-19 is impacting the global recovery.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will also deliver his semi-annual testimony on the state of the economy to Congress this week, while the European Central Bank will revise its current monetary policies, which investors are expecting will provide them with guidance on growth and inflation in the eurozone.
“In the US, CPI data tomorrow will tell us whether we did indeed see the peak in inflation in May – our economists think we did, forecasting a slowdown in headline CPI from 5.0% to 4.8% in June, potentially putting a cap on Fed rate expectations for now.” ING analysts said.
The yield on the US Treasury 10-year note was last at 1.333%, down by 2.3 basis points, reflecting a degree of investor demand for so-called safe haven assets.
Rising COVID-19 cases linked to the Delta variant are also weighing on global markets as they signal a potential delay in post-pandemic economic recovery.
“We’re also seeing higher case counts in the UK, US and Europe, which could also add to the uncertainty,” Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC markets said. “The lower vaccination rate in Europe could prove problematic in the days ahead,” he added.
The European Central Bank might announce revisions to its monetary policy at its meeting this week, but will not end its post-pandemic recovery program, ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Bloomberg TV.
Asian markets were boosted by Japanese machinery orders rising for the third consecutive month in May and the country posting higher than expected producer price index readings on Monday. The data releases boosted investor confidence in the economy recovering despite a rise in COVID-19 cases in the region.
The energy sector broadly declined on Monday. OPEC+ reached no agreement on production and abandoned a planned meeting last week, which has raised concern that the group could splinter and raise output at will. Brent crude futures were last down by 1.19%, trading for $74.65 per barrel, while WTI crude fell 1.17% to $73.69 a barrel. Natural gas was last trading 1.06% lower, while heating oil declined by 1.35%.