Biden sees a post-pandemic economic boom, but a small and short one

Biden
President Joe Biden.

  • Biden’s budget sees the economy booming for just two years before settling into slower growth.
  • GDP is forecasted to grow 1.8% annually in the mid-2020s, weaker than growth after past recessions.
  • The conservative estimates contrast with the Trump administration’s pattern of underdelivering.
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The Biden administration sees a strong economic rebound in the cards. What’s forecasted afterward is less exciting.

President Joe Biden revealed his budget proposal for the 2022 fiscal year on Friday, laying out his plan to spend roughly $6 trillion on child care, clean-energy initiatives, and infrastructure improvements – and laying out a set of forecasts for US gross domestic product over the next several years.

The near-term estimates are promising. Biden sees GDP expanding 5.2% in 2021 and 3.2% in 2022, handily exceeding the annual growth seen just before the COVID-19 crisis.

But if the so-called Biden boom began with his $1.9 trillion stimulus plan in March, then his budget proposal sees it ending just two years later. The administration estimates GDP growth will slow to 2% in 2023 and then settle at 1.8% through 2027.

This is considerably weaker than recoveries from previous recessions. Annual growth averaged 2.3% from 2010 to 2019 as the US placed the Great Financial Crisis behind it. After the dot-com bubble burst in 2001, GDP grew at an average annual rate of 5.4% until 2008. And the output expanded at an annual pace of 4.4% from 1983 to 1989, after back-to-back recessions had kickstarted the decade.

Biden’s forecast, then, is notably conservative. It contrasts with statements he’s made publicly as recently as this week. Citing “independent experts” in a Thursday speech, the president said growth could come in at 6% or greater in 2021.

He added that his follow-up spending proposals would open the door to “faster” growth. Yet the rate of expansion forecasted in his budget sees growth slowing or holding steady through 2027.

It also falls short of forecasts from major Wall Street banks. Morgan Stanley sees growth coming in at 8% this year before cooling to 3.2% in 2022. Bank of America projects growth of 7% in 2021 and 5.5% the following year.

The modest estimates could reflect a desire to buck the trend seen throughout the Trump presidency, which underdelivered on growth, even before considering the economic collapse seen through 2020.

The Trump administration’s final budget expected GDP growth to trend at 2.9% through 2030. While that was published before the pandemic, it still handily exceed the levels forecasted by Biden.

To be sure, other estimates in Biden’s plan are much more optimistic. The White House expects the unemployment rate to fall from 6.1% to 5.5% by the end of 2021 and reach 4.1% by the end of 2022. The rate will then hold steady at 3.8% into 2031, just above the pre-pandemic lows of 3.5%, according to the plan.

Biden’s latest spending proposals – which include trillions of dollars for infrastructure and family support – are also engineered to provide sustained investment instead of an immediate burst like that seen with his stimulus plan. Both packages are meant to be spent over the next eight to 10 years, and administration officials argue such a timeline would minimize their effect on inflation.

The White House has also stepped up its calls to invest in economic growth while interest rates sit at historic lows. While deficits are traditionally measured as debt to GDP, interest-payments to GDP are a better measure for sustainable spending, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told lawmakers in a Thursday hearing.

The government should spend on investments that lift output over the long term while debt-financing costs are so low, she added.

“The president’s proposal will have a temporary period of spending and permanent increases that, beyond the budget window, will result in lower deficits and more tax revenue to support those expenditures,” Yellen told a House Appropriations subcommittee.

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‘What is everybody else not seeing?’ One top economist details why Friday’s jobs report will double the average forecast – and explains why she’s comfortable being an outlier

Now Hiring man with mask
A man wearing a mask walks past a “now hiring” sign on Melrose Avenue amid the coronavirus pandemic on April 22, 2021 in Los Angeles, California.

  • Jefferies’ estimate for April payroll growth is 2.1 million jobs, double the consensus forecast.
  • Economist Aneta Markowska cited time-sheet data, jobless claims, and surveys for her bullish forecast.
  • Reopening and stimulus will play a bigger role in the April report than in March, she added.
  • See more stories on Insider’s business page.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ upcoming jobs report is expected to show strong payroll growth through April as the US reopened. But where most economists see a moderate month-over-month improvement, Aneta Markowska of Jefferies stands out in her bullishness.

The median estimate from economists surveyed by Bloomberg for April payroll growth sits at 1 million payrolls. That would mark a pickup from the 916,000 jobs added in March and the strongest month of job growth since August.

Markowska, Jefferies’ chief economist, forecasts that the economy added 2.1 million jobs last month. Not only is that more than double the median forecast, but also 800,000 payrolls greater than the next highest projection from a top economist. The unemployment rate will fall to 5.2% from 6% and beat the forecast of 5.8%, according to the bank.

While Markowska’s estimates stand leagues away from the consensus, the chief economist told Insider she has a tougher time understanding the median forecast than supporting her own.

“To be honest, I’m sort of asking the same question in reverse. What is everybody else not seeing?” Markowska said. “I run a number of models and the lowest one gives me an estimate of 1.4 million.”

Looking to quantitative data, Markowska highlighted changes in jobless claims as supporting growth of more than 1 million payrolls. Kronos data tracking hours worked correlates well with nonfarm payrolls and signals an April gain of 1.6 million jobs, she added.

BLS’ survey timing also backs up Jefferies’ forecast. The March report had little to do with reopening, as the survey window closed on March 13, Markowska said. The April report, due for release Friday morning, should better capture how reopening and Democrats’ stimulus boosted job growth in the leisure, hospitality, and retail sectors, she added.

Still, the hard data only makes up part of Markowska’s projection. Reports like the Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey and The Conference Board’s own survey point to growth as high as 4 million payrolls, the economist said. Although survey responses are volatile and harder to tie to quantitative data, they support Markowska’s argument for a blowout month of job gains.

“Obviously [3 million] sounds excessive, and I wouldn’t rely on any of those individually. But they certainly give me more confidence that we could get something closer to 2 million,” she said.

Aneta Markowska
Jefferies Chief Economist Aneta Markowska.

Looking beyond April growth and into 2022

Robust hiring could last into the summer, and even though Markowska sees the pace tapering off later in the year, she still expects growth to trend above the pre-pandemic norm. Jefferies’ GDP forecast calls for a 7% expansion in 2021, slightly exceeding the Federal Reserve’s estimate for 6.5% growth. That rate implies average monthly payroll additions of about 500,000 payrolls in the final month of 2021, Markowska said.

The chief economist’s optimism isn’t relegated to 2021. Consensus forecasts see the rate of recovery dropping off in 2022 as stimulus expires and easy gains turn into more modest improvements. But where the Fed expects GDP growth to slow to 3.3% next year, Markowska cited a still-elevated savings rate and expectations for stronger production for her 5% growth forecast.

“There’s still a lot of upside for industrial production. I think, by the middle of the year, you’re going to be looking at capacity utilization rates that match the peaks from the last cycle, and they’re going to keep going,” she said.

“That’s where I really differ: the ability of this economy to sustain a lot of that momentum. Whereas a lot of people see a fiscal cliff happening next year, I think that’s more of a story for 2023.”

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Fed lifts estimates for US economic growth and employment as vaccination speeds up

Federal Reserve
  • The Fed boosted its estimates for economic growth in its projections since December.
  • US GDP is forecasted to grow 6.5% this year, up from the prior estimate of 4.2%.
  • The Fed also sees the unemployment rate sinking to 4.5% by the end of 2021.
  • See more stories on Insider’s business page.

Federal Reserve policymakers boosted their projections for the US economic recovery on Wednesday as new stimulus and vaccine rollouts pave the way for a summer reopening.

The Federal Open Market Committee’s median estimate for 2021 gross domestic product growth rose to 6.5% this year, and 3.3% for 2022. That compares to the previous forecasts of 4.2% and 3.2%, respectively. The unemployment rate is now expected to dip to 4.5% this year, an improvement from the prior forecast of 5%.

The FOMC released its quarterly summary of economic projections following the second day of its March meetings. The central bank elected to hold interest rates at historic lows and maintain its pace of asset purchases at $80 billion in Treasurys and $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities per month.

The estimates are the first to be published since December, and therefore are the first to include the impact the $900 billion stimulus package passed late last year, the $1.9 trillion plan signed earlier this month, and the improved pace of vaccination. The developments have all been viewed as major boons to the economic rebound and prompted several economists to lift their own growth forecasts.

The nation’s fight against the coronavirus has also shifted significantly since the December FOMC meeting. Daily case counts surged to a peak above 300,000 in early January but have since tumbled to around 50,000 as distancing measures and vaccination curbs the pandemic’s spread.

New stimulus has been criticized by Republicans for risking runaway inflation through the recovery. Fed officials have countered such concerns in recent weeks. Jerome Powell has repeatedly said that, although reopening and stimulus can produce a quick jump in inflation, the effect will likely be temporary and give way to a similarly sharp decline.

The FOMC’s latest estimates reflect such an outlook. Members see personal consumption expenditures inflation – the Fed’s preferred price-growth gauge – reaching 2.4% in 2021, up from the previous 1.8% estimate. Inflation will then fall to 2% in 2022 and reach 2.1% the following year.

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‘Flood gates are about to open’: Bank of America just boosted its forecast for 2021 US GDP growth for these 3 reasons

GettyImages 1298436448
The IMF said vaccines would help the US economy recover sharply in 2021

  • The US economy is set for “stellar” economic growth in 2021, Bank of America said in a note on Monday.
  • The bank increased its 2021 US GDP growth estimate to 6.5% from 6.0% as it has become “more convinced” that the economy is set for a rebound after the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Detailed below are the three reasons why Bank of America just increased its 2021 US GDP growth forecast.
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The US economy will experience “stellar” growth in 2021 as the COVID-19 pandemic subsides, Bank of America said in a note on Monday.

The bank increased its 2021 US GDP growth estimate to 6.5% from 6.0% as it has become “more convinced” that the consumer will get out and spend this year, the note said. The bank also sees heightened economic growth extending into next year, bumping its 2022 GDP growth estimate to 5.0% from 4.5%.

Here are the three reasons guiding Bank of America’s decision to increase its economic growth forecast, according to the note.

1. A larger fiscal stimulus package.

Congressional Democrats are pushing for a $1.9 trillion stimulus package that is scheduled to be voted on next month. But there is still work to be done on the bill, and some provisions proposed in the legislation will hit road blocks, BofA said.

“We now think that the bill will total $1.7 trillion, up from our prior assumption of $1 trillion. Not all provisions will hit the economy right away and we expect that $1.2 trillion of monies will hit this year with the rest spilling into next year and beyond,” BofA said, adding that the “flood gates are about to open.”

2. Better news on the virus front.

The recent news on the virus front has been “unambiguously positive,” BofA said, pointing to virus cases being down 72% from the January peak, with hospitalizations following closely behind. This encouraging data should help tightly locked down states like New York and California ease restrictions.

“Vaccinations are running at a faster-than-expected-rate, which should pull forward the timeline for successful reopening of the economy. This will help to unleash demand for leisure and other COVID-sensitive services even earlier than previously anticipated,” BofA said.

3. Encouraging economic data. 

Consumers quickly put their stimulus checks to work in December, with exceptionally robust retail sales data leading BofA to boost its first quarter GDP tracking estimate to 5.5%. A recovery in manufacturing has also materialized at a rapid pace as the housing market booms, evidenced by recent building permits data.

“The goods side of the economy is still riding high while the services side is waiting with bated breath to participate. We expect the economy to accelerate further in the spring and really come to life in the summer,” BofA said. 

The biggest downside risk to BofA’s estimates? If the virus curve steepens again, resulting in a fourth wave, according to the note, which added that it does not expect a rise in inflation will lead the Fed to hike interest rates too early. 

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Stocks are vulnerable to a near-term pullback as the market overestimates a 2021 recovery, CFRA says

NYSE Trader worried red
A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., February 28, 2020.

  • Investors should brace for a near-term pullback in the first quarter of 2021, according to CFRA’s Sam Stovall. 
  • Domestic equity markets appear to us to have over-discounted a second-half 2021 economic and EPS recovery…and as a result may be vulnerable to a Q1 pullback,” the chief investment strategist said in a note to clients on Wednesday.
  • Stovall also sees the S&P 500 reaching 4080 by the end of 2021, a 9.5% upside from current levels.
  • Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.

Investors should brace for a near-term pullback in the first quarter of 2021, according to CFRA’s Sam Stovall. 

Positive vaccine news has left many investors hopeful that the economy will reopen and recover during the summer of 2021. Stovall explained that the market now is showing signs that investors are overestimating a recovery in the economy and earnings in the second half of 2021. 

“Domestic equity markets appear to us to have over-discounted a second-half 2021 economic and EPS recovery…and as a result may be vulnerable to a Q1 pullback,” the chief investment strategist said in a note to clients on Wednesday. 

Read more: JPMorgan unveils its 50 ‘most compelling’ stock picks to buy for 2021 – and details why each one will be a top performer

Stovall noted that the Russell 2000 is currently more than 30% above its 200-day moving average, and the 12-month return differential for the S&P 500 growth-value indices remains at a level not seen since December 1999, shortly before the “Dotcom” bubble burst. 

However, the chief strategist sees the S&P 500 gaining 9.5% in 2021. He reiterated his 12-month price target for the benchmark index of 4080, a sign that 2021 will be a positive year for stocks.

Stovall recommends investors stay overweight consumer discretionary stocks, health care, industrials, and materials. He recommends investors are underweight utilities, real estate, and consumer staples.

Read more: Wall Street’s biggest firms are warning that these 7 things could crash the stock market’s party in 2021

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