March began the economic reopening, but its jobs report will hint at how fast things are getting back to normal

Orange County coronavirus
The Promenade in Laguna Beach on Tuesday.

  • The March payrolls report will preview just how fast the US labor market might recover.
  • Data on Friday will likely show strong gains because of stimulus, vaccinations, and reopening.
  • Economists see the report kicking off a period of growth averaging 1 million payrolls a month.
  • See more stories on Insider’s business page.

After months of either meager gains or unexpected losses, March is poised to be a turning point for the US labor market’s recovery.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its nonfarm payrolls report for March on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, providing the most detailed look at how hiring fared throughout last month. The backdrop is promising. March had warmer weather, and a faster rate of vaccinations led some states to partially reopen for the first time since the winter’s dire surge in cases. Coronavirus case counts started to swing higher at the end of the month but largely stayed at lower levels.

Democrats’ $1.9 trillion stimulus plan was also approved early last month and unleashed a wave of consumer demand and aid for small businesses. Sentiment gauges surged to one-year highs, and Americans strapped in for a return to pre-pandemic norms.

Consensus estimates suggest March had the strongest payroll gains in six months. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg said they expected nonfarm payrolls to climb by 660,000, which would be nearly double the 379,000 gain seen in February. The unemployment rate is forecast to dip to 6% from 6.2%.

Some on Wall Street are even more optimistic. March’s release should kick off a “series of extremely strong jobs reports” with payroll additions averaging 950,000 a month through the second quarter, Bank of America economists led by Michelle Meyer said in a note. Unemployment will likely sink to 4.7% by the summer and sink another 0.2 percentage points by the end of 2021, they said.

“It’s hard to keep up with this economy,” the team added. “We think consumer spending is about to take off given the one-two punch of stimulus and reopening.”

UBS holds a similarly encouraging outlook. Economists led by Seth Carpenter see the sharp acceleration in economic activity driving just as strong a jump in hiring. Payroll growth is forecast to average 1 million throughout the second and third quarters as the economy reopens. With roughly 10 million jobs still lost to the pandemic, such a growth rate would recover more than half the country’s missing payrolls.

The bank also said it expected the unemployment rate to decline to 3.6% by the end of 2023, with the drop slowed by a swiftly rising rate of labor-force participation.

Data previewing the headline report showed job growth breaking out of its middling trend. The US private sector added 517,000 jobs in March, according to ADP’s monthly employment report. Though the reading landed just below the median estimate of 550,000, the increase was the largest seen since September and marked a third straight gain.

Separately, weekly jobless claims trended lower through the month, albeit at a sluggish pace. Claims rose to 719,000 last week, according to Labor Department data published Thursday. While that was an increase from the prior week’s total, claims still dropped 3.5% month over month. And the previous week’s reading was revised to 658,000 from 678,000, marking the lowest reading since the pandemic first slammed the labor market.

The Friday report will also highlight whether the recovery is evening out or if a K-shaped trend is growing worse. Unemployment rates for minorities continued to lag those for white Americans in February, and the bulk of early hires were for high-income workers. Preservation of the trend in March’s data could signal that those hit hardest by the pandemic will be some of the last to recover.

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The $5 trillion in pandemic-era stimulus is more than triple Great Recession-era aid – and suggests a permanent shift in the way Congress spends

Biden stimulus
  • Passage of President Biden’s stimulus plan brings the total pandemic-relief bill to $5 trillion.
  • The relief packages handily surpass past measures and mark a turning point for how Congress spends.
  • Americans largely back the new approach, with 66% supporting Biden’s measure in a recent poll.
  • Visit the Business section of Insider for more stories.

The amount of fiscal stimulus used to keep the US economy afloat over the past year blows past packages out of the water. But Americans don’t seem all that worried. In fact, one could say they’re getting used to it.

House Democrats passed President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion relief package on Wednesday, sending the bill to the Resolute desk for a final signature. The plan’s approval brings the sum of federal aid passed during the pandemic to roughly $5 trillion, a level practically unimaginable just 10 years ago.

All three stimulus packages passed during the pandemic have each handily surpassed the largest relief measure approved during the financial crisis. When compared to even older aid measures, the pandemic-era bills are gargantuan.

The scope of the virus’s economic fallout is just one reason for the packages’ hefty price tags. Others have critiqued past plans as inadequate and urged Congress to err on the side of overspending.

Yet even adjusting for inflation, the deals passed by President Biden and President Donald Trump exist in a league of their own. And despite the swelling price tags, several recent polls suggest Americans are largely on board.

Bridging the last crisis

For comparison, stimulus passed by President George W. Bush at the start of the financial crisis totaled just $152 billion. The Troubled Asset Relief Program created soon after allocated $700 billion for buying up banks’ toxic assets. Yet only $426 billion was invested through the program.

President Barack Obama’s first major legislative accomplishment came in February 2009 when he signed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act into law. The stimulus plan included some $831 billion in aid spread across tax cuts, expanded unemployment benefits, education funding, and aid for state and local governments.

The Obama administration at one point aimed to pass a $1 trillion bill but gave up on such plans after considering how difficult it would be to market the legislation to more moderate lawmakers, according to the former president’s memoir. Still, the approved bill was then the largest-ever stimulus package by a large margin.

But stimulus measures aren’t the only laws to boast increasingly massive price tags. The Tax Cut and Jobs Act signed by Trump in 2017 is estimated to raise the federal deficit by $1.9 trillion from 2018 to 2028, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

The bill included the largest ever cut to the corporate tax rate. Still, analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Budget pegs it as the eighth-largest in US history when measured as a proportion of the country’s gross domestic product.

Looking further back, it’s clear that Washington has grown more comfortable with spending swaths of cash in response to crises. Just weeks after the 9/11 terrorist attacks froze the travel industry, Congress passed a measure to extend $15 billion in relief to struggling airlines. That sum amounts to roughly $22.2 billion when adjusted for inflation.

Even New Deal policies enacted throughout the 1930s pale in comparison to the COVID-19 rescue packages. The collection of programs and laws is estimated to have cost $41.7 billion at the time, according to a 2015 study by economists Price Fishback and Valentina Kachanovskaya. That equates to about $789 billion in today’s dollars, less than Obama’s stimulus package and roughly 40% the size of Biden’s plan.

Pay now, worry later

Passage of the third major pandemic-relief bill marks a turning point in how Congress spends, but Americans are generally for the change. Two-thirds of Americans back Biden’s plan while just 25% oppose it, according to a late February poll conducted by The Economist and YouGov. That’s makes it more popular than Obama’s stimulus bill, the 2008 TARP plan, and Trump’s 2017 tax cut.

Studies of the $2.2 trillion CARES Act passed in March 2020 suggest the main tenets of the package – $1,400 direct payments and expanded unemployment benefits – will quickly lift consumer spending and accelerate growth. Americans receiving checks from the first stimulus measure immediately raised spending by $604 on average, according to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

Americans living paycheck-to-paycheck spent 62% of their stimulus payment in just two weeks. That compares to 35% for Americans who save most of their monthly income, the Fed researchers said. The data signals that targeting lower- and middle-income Americans with additional aid is the most efficient way to spur growth.

Wall Street is also optimistic Biden’s bill can supercharge the climb to pre-pandemic strength. Morgan Stanley and UBS lifted their growth forecasts this week, citing the plan and its size for their rosier outlooks. The plan’s passage and fast-acting effects on spending can bring US GDP to levels seen before the pandemic by the end of the month, economists at Morgan Stanley said.

To be sure, the unprecedented amount of federal spending has racked up a similarly historic bill. Federal debt was expected to reach 102% of GDP this year even before Biden’s plan was approved, the CBO said last month. The office also pegged the pre-stimulus budget deficit at $2.3 trillion, meaning the bill’s passage stands to lift the shortfall to its largest level ever.

Yet officials at the Fed aren’t immediately concerned with paying for the trillions of dollars in aid. The central bank has signaled it plans to hold interest rates near zero through 2023, ensuring that the cost the US pays to service its debt won’t rise to dangerous levels.

Chair Jerome Powell reiterated to lawmakers in February that, although the debt can’t remain at such elevated levels, Congress’s focus should remain on reviving the economy.

“I think that we will need to get back on a sustainable fiscal path,” Powell said while testifying to the Senate Banking Committee. “That’s going to need to happen, but it doesn’t have to happen now.”

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The post-pandemic economy will see a new class of growth stocks emerge, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee says

Thanksgiving airport coronavirus
Travelers wearing protective face masks walking through Concourse D at the Miami International Airport on Sunday, November 22, 2020 in Miami, Florida.


As the economy climbs out of the pandemic, a new class of stocks could emerge as investors’ go-to for growth: cyclical stocks.

That’s according to Tom Lee, who is anticipating that after a year where growth was dominated by technology and stay-at-home plays, stocks that hinge on an economic recovery have the most upside in 2021.

The Fundstrat head of research said that in 2021, Americans will shift away from their “digital life” and back to an “analog life.” While the COVID-19 pandemic was similar to a wartime economy, 2021 will be a post-war period, with a focus on rebuilding, and the stimulus bill approved by the House on Wednesday will further solidify these changes, Lee said.

Businesses will reopen, US households will receive substantial relief from the incoming stimulus package, and infrastructure spending will increase.

All of these changes will likely change the “psychology of investors,” Lee explained. If theme parks are booming, no one will want to buy Netflix, and if people are taking their first trip in a year, they won’t be thinking about buying Zoom.

In the post-pandemic economy, cyclical stocks, those that gain when the economy expands, will be the new “growth stocks.”

“After any war, cyclical companies become growth companies as economies are rebuilt. This is why cyclicals, in our view, are taking leadership,” said Lee.

Lee introduced a “Power Epicenter Trifecta” list to identify the cyclical stocks with the strongest price appreciation potential.

Some names on the list include travel stocks Norwegian Cruise Lines and Royal Caribbean, Delta Airlines, energy stocks like Exxon Mobil and Schlumberger, and even office REITs Boston Properties Inc and Highwoods Properties Inc.

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US economy adds 379,000 payrolls in February, smashing forecasts as virus cases tumble

Fishing store
  • The US added 379,000 jobs in February, beating the consensus estimate of 200,000 additions.
  • The reading marked a second straight month of labor-market expansion and an increase from January.
  • The unemployment rate dropped to 6.2% from 6.3%, putting it lower than forecasts.
  • Visit the Business section of Insider for more stories.

The US labor-market recovery accelerated in February as daily COVID-19 cases swiftly declined and the pace of vaccinations improved.

Businesses added 379,000 payrolls last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Friday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected a gain of 200,000 payrolls.

The increase follows a revised 166,000-payroll jump in January. The labor market has now grown for two straight months after contracting in December as virus cases surged.

The US unemployment rate fell to 6.2% from 6.3%, according to the government report. Economists expected the rate to stay steady at 6.3%. The U-6 unemployment rate – which includes workers marginally attached to the labor force and those employed part-time for economic reasons – remained at 11.1%.

The labor-force participation was also unchanged at 61.4%. A falling participation rate can drag the benchmark U-3 unemployment rate lower, but such declines signal deep scarring in the labor market.

The bigger picture

Jobless-claims data and private-payrolls reports offer some detail as to how the labor market fared through February, but the BLS release paints the clearest picture yet as to how the coronavirus pandemic has affected workers and the unemployed.

Roughly 13.3 million Americans cited the pandemic as the main reason their employer stopped operations. That’s down from 14.8 million people in January.

The number of people saying COVID-19 was the primary reason they didn’t seek employment dropped to 4.2 million from 4.7 million.

About 22.7% of Americans said they telecommuted because of the health crisis. That compares with 23.2% in January.

Roughly 2.2 million Americans said their job loss was temporary, down from 2.7 million the month prior. The number of temporary layoffs peaked at 18 million in April, and while the sum has declined significantly, it still sits well above levels seen before the pandemic.

Filling the hole

The Friday reading affirms that while the economy is far from fully recovered, the pace of improvement is picking up, most likely tied to the steady decline in daily new COVID-19 cases. The US reported 54,349 new cases on the last day of February, down from the January peak of 295,121 cases. Hospitalizations and daily virus deaths have similarly tumbled from their early-2021 highs, according to The COVID Tracking Project.

All the while, the country has ramped up the distribution and administration of coronavirus vaccines. The US has administered more than 82.6 million doses, according to Bloomberg data. The average daily pace of vaccinations climbed above 2 million on Wednesday and has held the level. At the current rate, inoculating three-quarters of the US population would take roughly six months, but the Biden administration has a rosier outlook.

The president on Tuesday announced the US would have enough vaccine doses for every adult by the end of May. While distributing the shots will most likely last beyond May, the new timeline marks a two-month improvement to the administration’s previous forecast.

Still, other data tracking the labor market points to a sluggish rebound. Initial jobless claims totaled 745,000 last week, according to Labor Department data published Thursday. That was below the median economist estimate of 750,000 claims but a slight increase from the previous week’s revised sum of 736,000. Weekly claims counts have hovered in the same territory since the fall as lingering economic restrictions hinder stronger job growth.

Continuing claims, which track Americans receiving unemployment benefits, fell to 4.3 million for the week that ended February 20. The reading landed in line with economist projections.

Other corners of the economy are faring much better amid the warmer weather and falling case counts. Retail sales grew 5.3% in January, trouncing the 1% growth estimate from surveyed economists. The strong increase suggests the stimulus passed at the end of 2020 efficiently lifted consumer spending in a matter of weeks.

All signs point to another fiscal boost being approved over the next few days. Senate Democrats voted to advance their $1.9 trillion stimulus plan on Thursday, kicking off a period of debate before a final floor vote. President Joe Biden has said he wants to sign the bill before expanded unemployment benefits lapse March 14. The new package includes $1,400 direct payments, a $400 supplement to federal unemployment insurance, and aid for state and local governments.

The bill isn’t yet a done deal. Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin forced a reading of the entire 628-page bill on Thursday, as Republicans seek to at least drag out its passage into law. Not a single Republican senator voted to advance the bill Thursday.

A process known as “vote-a-rama” will start after the 20 hours of debate and give Republicans the chance to further impede a final vote by introducing potentially hundreds of amendments to the bill.

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US business output climbs the most in nearly 6 years as services bounce back, IHS Markit says

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A person wearing a protective mask disinfects tables at an outdoor restaurant in Greenwich Village on February 15, 2021, in New York City.

  • IHS Markit’s gauge of US business output rose to 58.8 in a preliminary February reading.
  • The data marks the strongest rate of growth since March 2015.
  • Revived activity in the service industry drove the bulk of the improvement. Manufacturers grew, albeit at a slower pace.
  • Visit the Business section of Insider for more stories.

A popular gauge of US business output improved the most in nearly six years as falling COVID-19 case counts lifted the service industry, IHS Markit said Friday.

The firm’s Composite Output Index rose 0.1 points to 58.8 in a preliminary February reading, signaling the strongest rate of expansion since March 2015. The bulk of the improvement was driven by an uptick in the service sector. A measure of service activity rose to 58.9 from 58.3, also its highest level since March 2015.

IHS’ manufacturing purchasing managers’ index declined to 58.5 from 59.2, its lowest point in two months. Readings above 50 indicate sector growth, while those below the threshold signal contraction.

The service-sector improvement marks a major turnaround for the national economy. Economic restrictions imposed during the winter surge in virus cases halted the industry’s recovery as Americans were urged to stay at home. While manufacturers’ growth improved, service businesses dragged on overall output.

“The data add to signs that the economy is enjoying a strong opening quarter to 2021, buoyed by additional stimulus and the partial reopening of the economy as virus-related restrictions were eased on average across the country,” Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit, said in a statement.

The data follows a similarly encouraging retail-sales report published by the Census Bureau on Wednesday. Americans’ spending at retailers gained 5.3% last month, trouncing the 1% growth anticipated by economists. The jump was likely fueled by stimulus passed in late December and declining case counts.

Slower manufacturing growth in the month to date was attributed to extreme weather and supply shortages. Supplier delays hit a record high in the preliminary report. Rising input costs across manufacturers and businesses drove the biggest selling-price increase since at least October 2009, IHS said.

Business confidence remained elevated, though down slightly from its recent high. Service businesses reported slightly softer expectations, while manufacturers posted the strongest confidence in three months.

While activity in the service sector ticked higher, it hasn’t yet translated to a hiring surge. Firms expanded their payrolls “only marginally” in February, IHS said. Hiring at manufacturers, on the other hand, reached its quickest rate since December 2017.

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US stocks climb amid optimism around Biden’s COVID-19 plan and stimulus push

NYSE traders
  • US stocks gained on Thursday as investors cheered the Biden administration’s plan to better tackle the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • President Joe Biden on Wednesday revealed plans to accelerate testing, vaccine rollouts, and reopenings.
  • Initial jobless claims fell to 900,000 last week, according to the Labor Department. Economists expected claims to total 935,000.
  • Watch major indexes update live here.

US equities rose on Thursday as investors bet on the Biden administration to accelerate the nation’s economic recovery.

President Joe Biden unveiled new plans for how the government will tackle the coronavirus pandemic on Thursday. The president aims to sign 10 executive orders and invoke the Defense Production Act to accelerate testing, vaccine distribution, and reopen schools and businesses.

Efforts to better curb on the virus’s spread are set to join a push for additional fiscal support. The president called for a $1.9 trillion stimulus package earlier in the month that includes $1,400 direct payments, expanded unemployment insurance, and relief for states and municipalities.

Republicans are likely to oppose the measure, having previously balked at passing new aid for governments. Still, expectations for another large-scale spending bill have led analysts to lift growth forecasts and S&P 500 targets.

Here’s where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. ET open on Thursday:

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Tech stocks continued to climb after Netflix’s healthy earnings beat boosted indexes the session prior. Equities hit record highs on Wednesday as Biden’s inauguration amplified hopes for fresh fiscal stimulus and a stronger economic recovery. The jump was the largest Inauguration Day return in nearly a century.

In economic data, weekly filings for unemployment benefits totaled an unadjusted 900,000 last week as the labor market’s recovery continued to push up against elevated COVID-19 cases. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected claims to reach 935,000. 

Continuing claims, which track Americans receiving unemployment-insurance payments, fell to 5.1 million for the week that ended January 9. That came in below the median economist estimate of 5.3 million claims.

“Fiscal stimulus prospects, along with broader vaccine diffusion, are pointing to a brightening labor market outlook but with the pandemic still raging, claims are poised to remain elevated in the near-term,” Lydia Boussour, lead US economist at Oxford Economics, said.

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United Airlines sank after its fourth-quarter report missed Wall Street expectations for revenue and profit. The company cautioned that, despite vaccines being distributed nationwide, the pandemic will weigh on travel activity throughout 2021.

Bitcoin slid below the $32,000 support level as sell-offs cut further into the cryptocurrency’s bullish momentum. The token hit a 24-hour low of $31,310.75 before paring some losses.

Gold dipped as much as 0.7%, to $1,858.42 per ounce. The dollar weakened against a basked of Group-of-20 currencies and Treasury yields climbed slightly.

Oil prices fell but remained above the $50 support level. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped as much as 1.1%, to $52.75 per barrel. Brent crude, oil’s international standard, declined 1%, to $55.51 per barrel, at intraday lows.

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The S&P 500 will jump another 8% – but looming risks could spark a sudden pullback, RBC says

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Bank of America lifts its forecast for US economic growth on hopes for sweeping Biden-backed stimulus

Joe Biden
President-elect Joe Biden speaks about the US economy following a briefing with economic advisors in Wilmington, Delaware, on November 16, 2020.

  • Bank of America lifted its forecasts for US full-year and first-quarter economic growth, citing hopes for new stimulus under the Biden administration and strong consumer spending trends.
  • The bank’s economists lifted their first-quarter GDP forecast to 4% growth from 1% and boosted their 2021 estimate to 5% from 4.6% expansion.
  • Early indicators suggest the $900 billion relief package signed by President Trump last month is already lifting spending activity, the team said in a note to clients.
  • The $1.9 trillion relief plan revealed by Biden on Thursday can further accelerate a return to pre-pandemic economic strength, they added.
  • Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.

Robust consumer spending and the likelihood of additional stimulus led Bank of America to boost its outlook for US economic growth on Friday.

Economists led by Michelle Meyer expect US gross domestic product to grow 5% through 2021, up from the previous estimate of 4.6%. The bank’s first-quarter GDP forecast was also revised higher, to 4% from 1%.

Early indicators suggest the $900 billion relief package passed by President Trump late last month is already lifting economic activity from its nearly frozen state, the economists said. Debit- and credit-card spending is up nearly 10% from the year-ago period as of January 9, compared to being up just 2% before new stimulus was rolled out.

Additional stimulus from a Biden administration adds to the bank’s bullish forecast. The President-elect revealed a $1.9 trillion relief plan on Thursday, pitching $1,400 direct payments, state and local government aid, and a $15 minimum wage as critical to reviving the virus-slammed economy.

Democrats’ new, albeit slim, majority in the Senate signals a version of the plan will reach Biden’s desk. That extra support stands to provide a major backstop for the economy through the new year, Bank of America said.

Read more: ‘I don’t believe that we’ve really left the recession yet’: Bond king Jeff Gundlach lays out the 2 risks that investors should watch nearly a year into the pandemic – and shares the 4 components of a balanced, winning portfolio

“There are risks in both directions, but we see them skewed to the upside,” the team said in a note to clients. “There is now a ‘fiscal put’ akin to the ‘Fed put.'”

Fresh fiscal relief also takes some pressure off of the Federal Reserve in the near-term, the economists added. Should new stimulus fuel stronger growth and inflation, the Fed could rein in its easy monetary policy stance sooner than initially expected. 

The Biden-backed stimulus also provides the fiscal support Fed policymakers clamored for throughout 2020. If the economy weakens further, the government can coordinate a fiscal- and monetary-policy response akin to that seen at the start of the pandemic, the team said.

Still, elevated COVID-19 cases and strict economic restrictions will delay a full recovery, they added. Bank of America expects GDP will return to pre-pandemic levels in the third quarter.

While front-loaded stimulus boosted the firm’s first-quarter forecast, the early passage of a relief deal cut its second-quarter growth estimate to 5% from 7%.

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Monetary stimulus will remain in place well into economic recovery, Fed Chair Powell says

jerome powell fed mask
  • Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated Thursday that the central bank is far from tapering its asset purchases or raising interest rates.
  • “Now is not the time to be talking about an exit” from easy monetary policy, the central bank chief said in a virtual discussion.
  • The comments come after various Fed officials suggested that inflation could pick up faster than expected and, in turn, prompt an early rate hike.
  • Powell rebuffed fears of an unexpected policy shift, noting the central bank will notify the public “well in advance” if it is considering changes to its policy stance.
  • Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.

Those worrying the Federal Reserve will prematurely rein in monetary stimulus have little to fear, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday.

As COVID-19 vaccines roll out across the country, investors and economists have looked to Fed officials for any hints as to when its extremely accommodative policy stance could reach its conclusion. The central bank is currently buying $120 billion worth of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities each month to ease market functioning, and its benchmark interest rate remains near zero to encourage borrowing.

An unexpected reversal from such easy monetary conditions risks spooking financial markets and cutting into the country’s bounce-back. Powell emphasized on Thursday that the central bank remains far from adjusting monetary conditions and that markets need not worry about a surprise policy shift.

“Now is not the time to be talking about an exit,” the central bank chief said in a virtual discussion hosted by Princeton University. “I think that is another lesson of the global financial crisis, is be careful not to exit too early. And by the way, try not to talk about exit all the time if you’re not sending that signal.”

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The messaging mirrors past statements from Fed policymakers. Early in the pandemic, Powell told reporters the central bank wasn’t “thinking about thinking about” lifting interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee noted last month that changes to its policy stance won’t arrive until “substantial forward progress” toward its inflation and employment objectives is made.

Still, recent commentary from some officials has stoked some fears that the Fed could cut down on the pace of its asset purchases sooner than expected. Kansas City Fed President Esther George said Tuesday that inflation could reach the Fed’s target “more quickly than some might expect” if the economy’s hardest hit sectors quickly recover.

A swifter-than-expected rebound could prompt an interest-rate hike as early as mid-2022 Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said Monday. The projection stands in contrast with the FOMC’s general expectation for rates to remain near zero through 2023.

Powell reassured that, when the Fed starts considering a more hawkish stance, messaging will come well before action is taken. Treasury yields responded in kind, with the 10-year yield climbing nearly 4 basis points to 1.127 and the 30-year yield rising about 6 basis points to 1.874.

“We’ll communicate very clearly to the public and we’ll do so, by the way, well in advance of active consideration of beginning a gradual taper of asset purchases,” the Fed chair said.

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US stocks close mixed as stimulus optimism clashes with new virus strain

nyse open floor traders mask.JPG
  • US stocks closed mixed on Tuesday after Congress passed a multitrillion-dollar spending bill that includes $900 billion in new stimulus.
  • The package, which also funds the government through September 30, includes $600 direct payments, $300 in additional federal unemployment benefits, and aid for small businesses. 
  • The fresh fiscal support locked horns with concerns around a new strain of COVID-19 in the UK. The variant’s emergence prompted several European nations to enact travel restrictions on UK visitors.
  • Oil futures fell as investors viewed the new virus strain as a risk to near-term energy demand. West Texas Intermediate crude fell as much as 2.4%, to $46.60 per barrel.
  • Watch major indexes update live here.

US equities closed mixed on Tuesday as investors weighed Monday’s stimulus vote against the emergence of a new coronavirus strain in the UK.

Congress approved the measure Monday night after months of negotiations over additional fiscal support. The bill, which includes $900 billion in new stimulus, funds the government through September 30. The package also includes $600 direct payments, $300 in additional federal unemployment benefits, and funds for the Paycheck Protection Program.

Here’s where US indexes stood at the 4 p.m. ET market close on Tuesday:

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The White House has indicated President Donald Trump will sign the bill. Economists have largely backed additional fiscal support, though the slowed pace of economic recovery and rising COVID-19 cases still present sizeable risks.

“The $900 billion fiscal aid package is months late and will likely fall short of what is needed to prevent a rough winter, but it’s better than nothing,” Gregory Daco, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, said, adding the measure will “partially buffer the current economic slowdown” while vaccines are distributed.

Enthusiasm toward the new fiscal support was somewhat offset by reports of a new COVID-19 variant in the UK. Several European countries implemented travel restrictions on UK visitors to slow its spread.

Fears were somewhat allayed later in the day after public health experts said Pfizer and Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccines are likely effective against the new strain. Still, the new restrictions and virus fears threaten to tamper down on already weakened economic activity.

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Economic indicators also flashed some warning signs. US consumer confidence unexpectedly fell to a four-month low this month as surging COVID-19 cases and stricter lockdown measures offset a slight improvement in Americans’ long-term outlooks, Conference Board said Tuesday. The organization’s sentiment gauge fell to 88.6 from 92.9, while economists expected a jump to 97.

The tech and real estate sectors outperformed, while communications-service and energy stocks lagged.

The Nasdaq composite index was lifted by Apple, which extended a late Monday climb following a Reuters report that the iPhone maker aims to produce electric cars by 2024. The news also boosted lidar-sensor producers, as Apple reportedly plans to partner with such firms for its vehicle systems.

Peloton soared after the company inked a deal to buy exercise-equipment company Precor for $420 million. Peloton plans to use Precor’s facilities to boost its manufacturing capacity and cut down on its order backlog.

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Bitcoin rose back above $23,000 after plunging the most in nearly a month on Monday. The cryptocurrency faced pressure after the US Treasury proposed rules that would require exchanges to collect information from users who transfer more than $10,000 to a crypto wallet.

Spot gold erased early gains and fell as much as 1%, to $1,858.97 per ounce, at intraday lows. The US dollar strengthened against all of its Group-of-10 peers and Treasury yields dipped.

Oil prices fell amid fears that the new COVID-19 strain will further cut into demand. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped as much as 2.4%, to $46.60 per barrel. Brent crude, oil’s international benchmark, declined 2.7%, to $49.56 per barrel, at intraday lows.

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US stocks trade mixed as investors weigh $900 billion stimulus package against renewed virus fears

NYSE traders
  • US stocks traded mixed on Tuesday after Congress passed a multitrillion-dollar spending bill that includes $900 billion in new stimulus.
  • The package, which also funds the government through September 30, includes $600 direct payments, $300 in additional federal unemployment benefits, and aid for small businesses. 
  • Investors are weighing the bill’s passage against concerns around a new strain of the coronavirus in the UK.
  • Oil futures fell as investors viewed the new virus variant as a risk to near-term energy demand. West Texas Intermediate crude fell as much as 2.9%, to $46.60 per barrel.
  • Watch major indexes update live here.

US equities edged higher on Tuesday after Congress passed a $2.3 trillion bill that included government funding and a new tranche of stimulus measures.

Lawmakers approved the measure Monday night after months of negotiations over additional fiscal support. The bill, which includes $900 billion in new stimulus, funds the government through September 30. The package also includes $600 direct payments, $300 in additional federal unemployment benefits, and funds for the Paycheck Protection Program.

Here’s where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. ET market open on Tuesday:

Read more: Brooke de Boutray has beaten 99% of her peers over the last 5 years and runs a fund that is up 148% in 2020. She shared with us 4 stocks she’s most bullish on heading into 2021.

The White House has indicated President Donald Trump will sign the bill. Economists have largely backed additional fiscal support, though the slowed pace of economic recovery and rising COVID-19 cases still present sizeable risks.

“The $900 billion fiscal aid package is months late and will likely fall short of what is needed to prevent a rough winter, but it’s better than nothing,” Gregory Daco, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, said, adding the measure will “partially buffer the current economic slowdown” while vaccines are distributed.

The mixed trading follows a mild decline across indexes on Monday. Stocks fell to start the week amid concerns around a new strain of the coronavirus emerging in the UK. Several European countries implemented travel restrictions on UK visitors.

Fears were somewhat allayed later in the day after public health experts said Pfizer and Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccines are likely effective against the new strain.

Read more: BANK OF AMERICA: Buy these 16 medtech stocks with strong fundamentals that are set to soar post-pandemic

The Nasdaq composite index was lifted by Apple, which extended a late Monday climb following a Reuters report that the iPhone maker aims to produce electric cars by 2024. The news also boosted lidar-sensor producers, as Apple reportedly plans to partner with such firms for its vehicle systems.

Peloton soared after the company inked a deal to buy exercise-equipment company Precor for $420 million. Peloton plans to use Precor’s facilities to boost its manufacturing capacity and cut down on its order backlog.

Bitcoin rose back above $23,000 after plunging the most in nearly a month on Monday. The cryptocurrency faced pressure after the US Treasury proposed rules that would require exchanges to collect information from users who transfer more than $10,000 to a crypto wallet.

Spot gold gained as much as 0.4%, to $1,884.33 per ounce, at intraday highs. The US dollar wavered against a basket of currency peers and Treasury yields dipped.

Oil prices fell amid fears that the new COVID-19 strain will further cut into demand. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped as much as 2.9%, to $46.60 per barrel. Brent crude, oil’s international benchmark, declined 2.7%, to $49.56 per barrel, at intraday lows.

Now read more markets coverage from Markets Insider and Business Insider:

Brian Barish’s mutual fund crushed the market for 8 straight years and is in the top 2% after reinventing value investing for the digital age. Here’s how they pulled it off.

SoftBank aims to raise up to $525 million for its own blank-check company

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin expects direct stimulus checks to be released next week, says he ‘couldn’t be more pleased’ about deal

Read the original article on Business Insider