Central banks must start issuing digital currencies in the coming years because cash will become irrelevant, UBS chief economist says

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  • Central banks need to issue digital currencies as cash will become outdated, a UBS chief economist said.
  • These digital currencies won’t operate like cryptocurrencies and will have no wild swings in value, Paul Donovan said.
  • The supply of an officially backed coin depends on a central bank’s authority to regulate the currency’s spending power.
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Central banks will soon need to issue digital currencies as the use of cash slowly becomes irrelevant, according to UBS chief economist Paul Donovan.

“Central bank digital currencies are likely to start becoming part of individual economies’ payment systems in the coming years,” he said in a note published this week.

People are using physical forms of money, like notes and cash, much less than before. Moreover, about half of Sweden’s banks no longer accept cash and its economy is expected to go cashless by 2023.

“We wave debit cards and mobile devices around with the reckless abandon of a first year student at Hogwarts trying out a wand, magically paying for things without ever having to touch cash,” Donovan said, referring to the boarding school in the “Harry Potter” series of children’s books.

Donovan laid out specific differences between how CBDCs would operate compared with cryptocurrencies. CBDCs would be interchangeable with notes and coins in circulation, accepted for tax payments, and wouldn’t have wild fluctuations in value – unlike typical crypto, such as bitcoin. Officially backed digital currency supply could change depending on the central bank’s ability to regulate the spending power of the currency, he said. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies are decentralized and cannot be controlled by any one party.

He also said digital cash is a direct claim on the private bank to which its account is tied, and not on the government. This means government-produced money is becoming less significant, while digital money produced by the private sector is increasing in importance.

“If central banks want to stay relevant as cash becomes less relevant, they might have to consider entering the world of digital money,” he said.

China is among the leading economies looking closely at CBDCs. The People’s Bank of China aims to become the world’s first to issue a digital currency as part of a push to reduce its reliance on the dollar-denominated financial system, according to Reuters.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last month a potential digital dollar is a “high priority” project for the US. But he thinks CBDCs should exist alongside cash and other forms of money, rather than replace them entirely.

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Millions of Americans have struggled to get access to their stimulus checks. The government needs a better system so getting cash to people isn’t so painfully slow.

Biden stimulus
President Joe Biden speaks about the COVID-19 relief package in the State Dining Room of the White House, Monday, March 15, 2021, in Washington

With President Biden’s signature now sealing the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, most households nationwide are set to receive their third stimulus check in a year. This relief is urgently needed as new unemployment insurance filings continue to surpass one million on a weekly basis a year into the pandemic. However, for the third time, policymakers will rely on an inefficient, patchwork system to deliver this relief – a system that previously excluded millions, and left others waiting months for support.

The lesson is clear: our policies are only as good as the plumbing that delivers them. To better respond to this crisis and those to come, Congress needs to scrap the current fragmented system and build a direct and seamless infrastructure capable of sending cash quickly and automatically when families – and the economy – need it. In short, Congress needs to create a “cash button.”

Cash flow

Direct cash payments are a time-tested economic relief and recovery strategy. In the 2001 and 2008 recessions, and as economic stimulus tax credits in 2009 and 2011, cash was a standard feature. But despite their demonstrated value as a countercyclical measure, the government has not invested in the infrastructure to ensure that cash payments can be efficiently and equitably distributed. A strong foundation for cash relief will also be necessary for the new income support program provided within the expanded child tax credit.

This first attempt last year to get aid to struggling families suffered a number of setbacks. Despite the CARES Act passing in late March, by October, around 12 million people, disproportionately Black and Latinx households, had yet to receive their Economic Impact Payments. Even state unemployment insurance systems, a longstanding source of income support, were unable to distribute cash quickly. The Century Foundation estimated that by the end of May 2020 less than 60 percent of the 33 million UI claims made since the start of the pandemic had been paid – leaving millions of families experiencing or on the brink of financial hardship.

To be sure, the federal and state governments patched up issues throughout the months-long rollout of CARES Act checks, as well as the December stimulus. They included the creation of systems for low-income families who do not file taxes to receive the payments, and used the federal Direct Express debit cards and state EBT systems to speed disbursement. Yet problems remain: due to the inefficient and incomplete infrastructure, many people in need still haven’t received their benefits.

How to get cash in hands

A more responsive and efficient payment system will require three major steps, as outlined in a recent report by Jain Family Institute experts.

First, using records maintained by the Social Security Administration (SSA) and the IRS, the government can build an integrated database of individuals who would receive cash, similar to what was proposed by Rep. Rashida Tlaib in her BOOST Act, to ensure minimal coverage gaps. The SSA could then administer payments automatically to those in need, in particular because the SSA is already tasked with sending out tens of millions of payments through direct deposit and Direct Express debit cards each month.

Second, to reach those not covered by federal records, the government can allow individuals to apply for cash support and qualify through any existing state-administered benefits systems, such as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), formerly known as food stamps.

Lastly, the federal government should establish public bank accounts to provide a secure endpoint for cash assistance and ensure that the millions of households currently unbanked and underbanked could receive aid without having to rely on check cashers or paid tax preparers as they currently do. Two options for public banking are postal banking and private federal reserve accounts. A no-cost checking account through the USPS would allow anyone with an address to receive electronic transfers, from the Treasury, the Social Security Administration or the Federal Reserve.

Fed accounts, free, personal, no-cost bank accounts set up through the Federal Reserve system, would allow instantaneous cash transfers to account holders and could be linked to existing accounts at commercial banks or set up as part of postal banking, creating a seamless pipeline for disbursement. Since the USPS operates ubiquitous local branches, including in rural and low-income areas where commercial banks do not maintain a presence, postal banking could serve as a platform for a host of other financial services and help foster financial inclusion.

These three steps will create a safety net for the 21st century. As we saw with the CARES Act, poverty rates decreased nationwide and an estimated 12 million people were saved from falling into poverty. While delays and missteps blunted its impact, we have an opportunity to do better and we must take it.

There is extensive evidence that cash works, and with the federal government now tasked with distributing the American Rescue Plan’s child allowance (which is likely to become a permanent part of the safety net), it is time for policymakers to establish the plumbing required to provide cash relief nimbly and efficiently when crises occur. We need to build a cash button, and legislators have the options at hand to make that a reality.

Stephen Nuñez has over a decade of experience in research and program evaluation related to welfare policies and economic inequality. He holds a PhD in sociology from Stanford University, and in his current role, leads JFI’s research on guaranteed income in the US and internationally.

Rachel Black is an Associate Director of the Aspen Institute’s Financial Security Program (FSP). She previously served as Director of New America’s Family-Centered Policy program. Her work has been featured in a diverse set of outlets, including The Washington Post, The New York Times, The Atlantic, Slate, and Essence.

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